Francis
These are the average and median prices for all sold homes combined in the County of Santa Clara over the past 2 and a half years, month after month.
In this graph we can see that:
- while January is always lower, the best months for a higher sales price (in average) are March to June. while we note that, we have to remember that January average prices are the results of DEC. sales, so all months graphs are the results of the previous months sales. It is not true of all transactions, of course, but we are talking "statistics" here. This is over a large number of transactions.
- the arrows point to the usual rebound in prices in September and October, after the months of July and August, which are traditionally slower.
- the months of November and December are traditionally slower and prices are down during these months - as an average. This was not true this past year though in 2021, and this is noteworthy. In fact, "in the trenches", us Realtors were surprised to see the level of activity in November and December. In general at that time of the year buyers can expect a more relaxed and slower market. Well, not in 2021!
- prices in 2022 are geared for an overall up year as an average; the market started very strong at the beginning of the year, and as we now know has slowed down significantly around may (which is more visible on the median price graphs). However the market is still very active, just not at the high of April-May. The market is now more balanced, with fewer multiple offers and prices which have scaled back at the level of six to nine months ago.
It is important to remember that:
1/ multiple offers depend on the asking price. A very low asking price will draw multiple offers.
2/ it is not expected that prices will "crash" as demand is still very strong, and interest rates are still historically low, as the 3rd graph shows.
3/ a recession, even if it comes around, does not equate necessarily to lower real estate prices - see the last graph.
4/ most analysts and banks forecast real estate prices up every year for the coming years.
Francis
