The California Association of Realtors, in its “2011 California Housing Market Forecast” has projected a decline in California home sales for 2010, although home sales are expected to edge up slightly in 2011.
California home sales for 2010 are forecast to decline 10 percent from the 2009 sales figure of 546,500 homes sold. Sales in 2011 are projected to increase a lackluster 2 percent to 502,000 units compared with 492,000 units (projected) in 2010. After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast.
The real estate market has always been privileged in the Silicon Valley in comparison to the rest of the state. This tends to indicate a healthy market in the year to come in our area, and by our area I include Los Altos, Mountain View, Palo Alto and Menlo Park, and of course the Cities nearby.
Almost no one expects prices to rise as they have been doing “pre-crisis”, but based on the hiring done by local companies like Google, Apple and Facebook, to name a few, I would not bet on prices going down next year. What do you think?
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Silicon Valley real estate resource
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
To keep in perspective: a nationwide point of view.
Lawrence Yun is chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. I reproduce below a piece that he has written recently, which I associate with.
"Why Some Buyers Are Still Waiting."
Amid all the news coverage about how the housing market is still in the tank, there’s one piece of news that seems to have escaped most commentators: Housing is at its most affordable level in decades.
Because of record-low mortgage rates (~ 4.3% currently, +/-), the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home purchased with FHA-backed financing is $1,150, down from $1,658 in 2006, at the height of the boom.
Of course, like all things real estate, affordability is local. On a national basis, though, now is clearly a good time to buy for those who are willing to stay within their budget. But the extent to which households take advantage of today’s conditions is influenced by a number of factors.
The fist factor is the availability of credit
Second is market confidence. Although home values have largely stabilized in the past 18 months, some buyers believe prices are going to fall further. Unfortunately, as they hold off on purchases, their prophecy will become reality – inventories will grow and we’ll see downward pressure on prices.
The third factor is confidence in the overall economy. Slow economic growth leads to economic insecurity, even among those who have jobs.
Once consumers regain confidence and banks increase lending to sound individuals, buying activity should start to pick up. After July’s 27% drop in sales, the market has shown signs of healing; August existing-home sales were up almost 8%, and pending contracts suggest further gains.
It will take time before we can say the economy is back to normal, but in the meantime, high affordability and low mortgage rates will benefit those who are willing and able to purchase.
My graphical perspective on values, comparing National and more local values over 30 years:
For local information, in the Silicon Valley, don't hesitate to contact me.
Direct MLS search
Silicon Valley real estate resource.
"Why Some Buyers Are Still Waiting."
Amid all the news coverage about how the housing market is still in the tank, there’s one piece of news that seems to have escaped most commentators: Housing is at its most affordable level in decades.
Because of record-low mortgage rates (~ 4.3% currently, +/-), the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home purchased with FHA-backed financing is $1,150, down from $1,658 in 2006, at the height of the boom.
Of course, like all things real estate, affordability is local. On a national basis, though, now is clearly a good time to buy for those who are willing to stay within their budget. But the extent to which households take advantage of today’s conditions is influenced by a number of factors.
The fist factor is the availability of credit
Second is market confidence. Although home values have largely stabilized in the past 18 months, some buyers believe prices are going to fall further. Unfortunately, as they hold off on purchases, their prophecy will become reality – inventories will grow and we’ll see downward pressure on prices.
The third factor is confidence in the overall economy. Slow economic growth leads to economic insecurity, even among those who have jobs.
Once consumers regain confidence and banks increase lending to sound individuals, buying activity should start to pick up. After July’s 27% drop in sales, the market has shown signs of healing; August existing-home sales were up almost 8%, and pending contracts suggest further gains.
It will take time before we can say the economy is back to normal, but in the meantime, high affordability and low mortgage rates will benefit those who are willing and able to purchase.
My graphical perspective on values, comparing National and more local values over 30 years:
For local information, in the Silicon Valley, don't hesitate to contact me.
Direct MLS search
Silicon Valley real estate resource.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
A tale of two Counties... Santa Clara Cty and San Mateo Cty
Comparing the two Counties, for October 2010:
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, contact me.
Thanks for reading. Francis
San Mateo County and Santa Clara County:
Av. price: ............................$ 974k ...............…… $816.3 K
Median: ...............................$ 675 K ..............…… $639 K
SP/LP ratio: ...........................98.2% ................……. 99%
Days on Market: ...................58 days .................…. 54 days
Days of inventory: ...............117 days ..............…. 103 days.
Pumpkin production total .... ;-) .......below:
..........................................2,723 tons .................... 1,399 tons
Av. price: ............................$ 974k ...............…… $816.3 K
Median: ...............................$ 675 K ..............…… $639 K
SP/LP ratio: ...........................98.2% ................……. 99%
Days on Market: ...................58 days .................…. 54 days
Days of inventory: ...............117 days ..............…. 103 days.
Pumpkin production total .... ;-) .......below:
..........................................2,723 tons .................... 1,399 tons
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, contact me.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Homes in Mountain View – with Los Altos Schools...?
Many people ask for the best schools, and it often means higher prices. There are a few complexes which are less expensive than Los Altos proper, or Palo Alto, - in the more affordable Mountain View community. I have updated the information I keep on two of these complexes, as an example of what one can get for, for what kind of price:
The Old Mill complex, With both townhouse-style homes and condominiums, and current dues of $320 per month. Web tour and price history available at:
http://www.oldmillcomplex.com/
The Parc Crossings complex, with the 3 types of homes: single-family residences, townhouses (or “row-houses”), and condominiums (flats). Dues vary depending on the home. Web tour & price history available at:
http://www.theparccrossings.com/
These types of homes can also be attractive for rental purposes, until they are used later for personal use, even though of course in the Bay Area it is hard to have a good return on investment when renting a property. But they have enjoyed a good reputation over all these years. Price evolution over time is noted on these web sites.
Note: there is also a small area of Palo Alto which is served by Los Altos schools (South of the Adobe Creek, West of Alma).
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, contact me.
Direct MLS search
Silicon Valley real estate resource.
smart graphs...
The Old Mill complex, With both townhouse-style homes and condominiums, and current dues of $320 per month. Web tour and price history available at:
http://www.oldmillcomplex.com/
The Parc Crossings complex, with the 3 types of homes: single-family residences, townhouses (or “row-houses”), and condominiums (flats). Dues vary depending on the home. Web tour & price history available at:
http://www.theparccrossings.com/
These types of homes can also be attractive for rental purposes, until they are used later for personal use, even though of course in the Bay Area it is hard to have a good return on investment when renting a property. But they have enjoyed a good reputation over all these years. Price evolution over time is noted on these web sites.
Note: there is also a small area of Palo Alto which is served by Los Altos schools (South of the Adobe Creek, West of Alma).
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, contact me.
Direct MLS search
Silicon Valley real estate resource.
smart graphs...
Friday, September 24, 2010
Real estate market: good but slower...
Home sales remained stagnant after tax credits expired.
The market has been much slower since the beginning of July. It is typically the case in a normal year (which is seldom the case in the Valley), but it has been brutal this year, as it probably was compounded with the end of the tax credits.
(the number of) Sales of existing single-family homes in California fell by more than 10% in July, from their June level, and hit the lowest level since June 2008 when sales were at 428,000. Although this was the first back-to-back double-digit monthly decrease since early 2007, monthly sales remained well above the cyclical trough of 254,650 sales that occurred in October 2007.
However, remember that the real estate market is a very local matter. No two areas, houses, are the same.
Indeed, in the County of Santa Clara for instance, prices are UP, year-over-year.
Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were up in August, year-over-year, for the eleventh month in a row. The median price rose 13.7%, while the average price was up 15.4%, reflecting a higher share of $1 million + home sales.
However, the number of sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to slide and were lower than the year before for the third straight month: -13.1%.
Inventory was higher than last year for the second month in a row: 18.4%. This should translate into softer sales prices.
... A little known fact, showing that the market in this County is pretty good: the sales price to list price ratio for homes dropped below 100% for the first time since June 2009: 99.6%.
– many places envy the Silicon Valley situation…
The median price for condominiums was up 5.3% year-over-year. This is the tenth month in a row the median price has been higher than the year before. After nine straight months of year-over-year gains, the average prices for condos dropped 1.7%.
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, don't hesitate to contact me. And remember, real estate is not a short-term proposition. Timing the market is impossible.
Thank you for reading !
www.TrendsbyFrancis.com
The market has been much slower since the beginning of July. It is typically the case in a normal year (which is seldom the case in the Valley), but it has been brutal this year, as it probably was compounded with the end of the tax credits.
(the number of) Sales of existing single-family homes in California fell by more than 10% in July, from their June level, and hit the lowest level since June 2008 when sales were at 428,000. Although this was the first back-to-back double-digit monthly decrease since early 2007, monthly sales remained well above the cyclical trough of 254,650 sales that occurred in October 2007.
However, remember that the real estate market is a very local matter. No two areas, houses, are the same.
Indeed, in the County of Santa Clara for instance, prices are UP, year-over-year.
Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were up in August, year-over-year, for the eleventh month in a row. The median price rose 13.7%, while the average price was up 15.4%, reflecting a higher share of $1 million + home sales.
However, the number of sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to slide and were lower than the year before for the third straight month: -13.1%.
Inventory was higher than last year for the second month in a row: 18.4%. This should translate into softer sales prices.
... A little known fact, showing that the market in this County is pretty good: the sales price to list price ratio for homes dropped below 100% for the first time since June 2009: 99.6%.
– many places envy the Silicon Valley situation…
The median price for condominiums was up 5.3% year-over-year. This is the tenth month in a row the median price has been higher than the year before. After nine straight months of year-over-year gains, the average prices for condos dropped 1.7%.
For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, don't hesitate to contact me. And remember, real estate is not a short-term proposition. Timing the market is impossible.
Thank you for reading !
www.TrendsbyFrancis.com
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Market Has Hit Bottom? hmmm.. yes.
A very good indication of where the market is heading in a given area is the level of inventory of homes available at a given time, and compare this to the past.
In the County of Santa Clara, where we have been hit hard by the downturn in the past year or so, the inventory of available homes (SFR's and condo/townhouses combined) as of 9/11/09 stands at 3,315; a year ago at the same time, it was 6,844, and in 2007, it was 6,542.
This level of inventory has not been that low since January of 2007.I believe this sets the stage for a very healthy market.We have seen in the past months an impressive number of foreclosures being bought from investors and home buyers alike, often in multiple offers situations.
It is important to remember too that the percentage of houses which sold for more than the listing price, in the County of Santa Clara, has been consistently above 30% for the past year, and stands now at 40.6%. (Sunday real estate section in the SJ Merc.). Who would think based on the news articles in the papers?
For instant insight and smart graphs on the market, County-wide, and area by area within the Cities, go to:
www.TrendsByFrancis.com
If you like this article, share it! Thank you for your time.
Francis
In the County of Santa Clara, where we have been hit hard by the downturn in the past year or so, the inventory of available homes (SFR's and condo/townhouses combined) as of 9/11/09 stands at 3,315; a year ago at the same time, it was 6,844, and in 2007, it was 6,542.
This level of inventory has not been that low since January of 2007.I believe this sets the stage for a very healthy market.We have seen in the past months an impressive number of foreclosures being bought from investors and home buyers alike, often in multiple offers situations.
It is important to remember too that the percentage of houses which sold for more than the listing price, in the County of Santa Clara, has been consistently above 30% for the past year, and stands now at 40.6%. (Sunday real estate section in the SJ Merc.). Who would think based on the news articles in the papers?
For instant insight and smart graphs on the market, County-wide, and area by area within the Cities, go to:
www.TrendsByFrancis.com
If you like this article, share it! Thank you for your time.
Francis
Friday, February 27, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
How is the market doing these days?... (2)...
...or: another way to ask the question may be: “how are the mortgage rates these days?”
How much home you can afford is affected by mortgage interest rates. Where the interest rates are right now, for each additional percentage point, the payment on a $600k loan would be an additional $381 per month, which is roughly equivalent to a purchase amount of $64,000. Interest rates are at an historical low as shown below, and the consensus among the financial specialists is that it will not continue that way for ever. … The fear of inflation is real.
During the last downturn, a lot of people started to get in the market as soon as it was evident that interest rates were increasing. The same phenomenon might occur again, reducing the comfort and purchasing power for those waiting to “time the market”.
As written recently in an article in Realtytimes®, “the average homeowner is worth 35 times more than the average renter”.
Owning a home becomes part of your investment portfolio, provides tax benefits, allows you build equity (yes, it still exists), and … if you buy now, you may get an excellent deal. Of course, you need to consider how long you would be in the home. You need to plan on staying at least 3 to 5 years in a house. Although even if you have an unexpected move, a valid strategy is to keep the property and rent it out.
Finally, with the last changes from the administration, new home buyers will receive substantial subsidies, just to make the step to homeownership. Definitely something to consider… For more information on this subject, do not hesitate to contact me.
As always, I advise buyers to find the place they love, and buy it for many years to come in a safe, affordable way.
Francis C. Rolland
How much home you can afford is affected by mortgage interest rates. Where the interest rates are right now, for each additional percentage point, the payment on a $600k loan would be an additional $381 per month, which is roughly equivalent to a purchase amount of $64,000. Interest rates are at an historical low as shown below, and the consensus among the financial specialists is that it will not continue that way for ever. … The fear of inflation is real.
During the last downturn, a lot of people started to get in the market as soon as it was evident that interest rates were increasing. The same phenomenon might occur again, reducing the comfort and purchasing power for those waiting to “time the market”.
As written recently in an article in Realtytimes®, “the average homeowner is worth 35 times more than the average renter”.
Owning a home becomes part of your investment portfolio, provides tax benefits, allows you build equity (yes, it still exists), and … if you buy now, you may get an excellent deal. Of course, you need to consider how long you would be in the home. You need to plan on staying at least 3 to 5 years in a house. Although even if you have an unexpected move, a valid strategy is to keep the property and rent it out.
Finally, with the last changes from the administration, new home buyers will receive substantial subsidies, just to make the step to homeownership. Definitely something to consider… For more information on this subject, do not hesitate to contact me.
As always, I advise buyers to find the place they love, and buy it for many years to come in a safe, affordable way.
Francis C. Rolland
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