Update on the State of Real Estate in California and the Bay

Noted among the regular updates on the California real estate markets, from the California Association of Realtors, as of 5/27/20:

This was the first week in several months where it was more difficult to find negative impacts on the economy and housing market than it was to find signs optimism. And yet, even as the economy begins to heal, it is important to temper that hope with the difficult truth: even if the economy continues to gradually reopen and the leading indicators continue to improve, the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented and it will take time for us t

o recover. This is particularly true in a world where the new normal will likely look significantly different that our previous definition. On top of that, we will face both ongoing restrictions and a big learning curve on how to operate in a pre-vaccine world.

Consumer confidence finds bottom: After suffering from its worst decline in April in nearly 50 years, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up slightly in May. The index remains below 100 indicating that consumers are still pessimistic, but it is a slightly lower level of pessimism than in April. This supports the conclusion from a variety of other indicators that the economy and market found a bottom in mid-April and has begun to stabilize after roughly 2.5 months of sheltering in place.

Mortgage applications regain lost ground: Homebuyer demand is beginning to show signs of life as well as the U.S. recorded its 6th consecutive increase in new purchase-money applications. That brings the number of mortgage applications back above the pre-crisis levels of late February. .... California saw its 7th consecutive weekly gain in mortgage applications as well, though it also saw a bigger contraction in the immediate aftermath of the downturn, so it remains roughly 2% below 2019 levels.

Buyer demand coming back with more showings: Buyer demand is also expressing itself in the form of increased showings. Last week, the 7-day moving average of showings posted a 38% increase, which brought the index back to pre-outbreak levels. And although last week’s levels were still roughly 4% below 2019 levels, home showings have improved dramatically from mid-April when showings were falling by nearly 75% on a weekly basis and were well below 2019 levels.

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! 

Prices May Stay Pretty Stable in 2020

Prices may stay pretty stable in 2020?

Many clients ask me which direction prices will trend this year with the pandemic.

Some expect prices to go down, while others encounter multiple offers, at least here in the Silicon Valley.

For now, and just considering our local area, one thing is sure: the number of transactions has been cut roughly in half. But how prices will fare will depend mostly on the job market in both Santa Clara and San Mateo County.  And what we see a lot of is remote work, not so much lay offs (although unfortunately we will see some of that happen way too much).

In this article from Clare Trapasso, senior news editor of Realtor.com, the prediction is that prices will remain steady in 2020, because the inventory of homes has also gone down dramatically.  In the Silicon Valley where properties are still fairly scarce, my experience is that prices are currently soft, but this is compared to an early expectation of a strong price increase at the beginning of the year.  It is also not the case for prime, very desirable properties (i.e. very remodeled, or excellent location, or large lots, or just "rare finds").
Diana Olick, from CNBC, also reports a surge of multiple offers nationwide, with a majority of offers being made in a competitive environment in many local markets, from the East to the West.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! Select "view full screen" at the bottom right for the best experience.