Update on the State of Real Estate in California and the Bay

Noted among the regular updates on the California real estate markets, from the California Association of Realtors, as of 5/27/20:

This was the first week in several months where it was more difficult to find negative impacts on the economy and housing market than it was to find signs optimism. And yet, even as the economy begins to heal, it is important to temper that hope with the difficult truth: even if the economy continues to gradually reopen and the leading indicators continue to improve, the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented and it will take time for us t

o recover. This is particularly true in a world where the new normal will likely look significantly different that our previous definition. On top of that, we will face both ongoing restrictions and a big learning curve on how to operate in a pre-vaccine world.

Consumer confidence finds bottom: After suffering from its worst decline in April in nearly 50 years, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up slightly in May. The index remains below 100 indicating that consumers are still pessimistic, but it is a slightly lower level of pessimism than in April. This supports the conclusion from a variety of other indicators that the economy and market found a bottom in mid-April and has begun to stabilize after roughly 2.5 months of sheltering in place.

Mortgage applications regain lost ground: Homebuyer demand is beginning to show signs of life as well as the U.S. recorded its 6th consecutive increase in new purchase-money applications. That brings the number of mortgage applications back above the pre-crisis levels of late February. .... California saw its 7th consecutive weekly gain in mortgage applications as well, though it also saw a bigger contraction in the immediate aftermath of the downturn, so it remains roughly 2% below 2019 levels.

Buyer demand coming back with more showings: Buyer demand is also expressing itself in the form of increased showings. Last week, the 7-day moving average of showings posted a 38% increase, which brought the index back to pre-outbreak levels. And although last week’s levels were still roughly 4% below 2019 levels, home showings have improved dramatically from mid-April when showings were falling by nearly 75% on a weekly basis and were well below 2019 levels.

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! 

Try And Try Again - A Home Buying Tale

Try and try again...

The market "has softened", or the market "has slowed down".  Or has it?

I was just hearing MarketPlace on NPR yesterday afternoon saying that the market was going to have a renewed jump in activity soon, with more multiple offers than we even had lately, due to lack of inventory and very low interest rates.  Whether this comes true or not, we will see.  But these stats below tell the tale of California home buyers and their successes, ...or delays during the 2nd quarter of this year.

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Truth be told, in the SF Bay Area, whether the market has slowed down or not depends a lot on the exact area, the type of property, the time of year and also... the asking price.

For instance for well-priced properties in Palo Alto, or towns with good schools, the activity is still quite brisk.  For smaller homes like condominiums in areas where there is more inventory (i.e. some areas in San Jose or Santa Clara, or Sunnyvale) prices have certainly come down from the highs of last year.  It is all a question of knowing the market.  A qualified buyer's agent is a must to make sense of all this, someone who carefully evaluates the home value and the recent sales before placing an offer, above or under asking price.  It will depend on the condition, the location, the local inventory for the particular home you are considering.

Questions? Call or text!

Thank you,

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with some volatility.

Property for sale: holding off on offers, or not?

Property for sale: holding off on offers, or not?

As a seller, you and your agent prepare the house and the file carefully, you do everything right and the big day comes: it goes on MLS, you have a Realtor tour, and an open house during the week end.  The critical marketing exposure time has started, and between the paper advertising, the internet advertising and all the promotion, the world is starting to learn about your house.

The big question at that point is: do you hold off for offers until a certain date (hoping for multiple offers), or do you take offers as they come? 

Holding off for offers is a good strategy, if the house is well priced: it ensures that the house has been seen enough, and that potential buyers have had the time to review the file and decide what they want to do, after looking at all the disclosures and reports you carefully prepared upfront.  This way, when offers come in, chances are they are informed and well thought-out, and you can have a choice between good offers.  Odds are high the transaction will close without problems.

But the down side of this strategy is that some buyers are turned off by the process, and do not want to participate in this competition.  Also, if you hold off too long, other competing properties will come on the market and you will lose some potential buyers.  Finally, with this strategy comes the difficult choice to make if someone brings you a “preemptive offer”, which is likely much higher than the asking price.  If you take it you are not going to see what the other offers could have been (the ones that followed your instructions and waited for the “offer date”).  If you do not take it you could lose that high offer.  Hint: it is a gamble.

So the alternative is to “take offers as they come”.  But what do you do when one comes too fast, may be even higher than your asking price, and you have the feeling that either 1/ the buyers did not read the file carefully just to go faster or 2/ not enough people have seen the house? 
Could you have a higher or better offer by waiting for more people to have the time to see the property and work on an offer?  In real estate we say that the first offer is often the best one.  But this saying goes in a typical market, and our market is anything but typical.

Two key elements are in play here: 1/ the (pricing) strategy you prefer to use, and 2/ the quality of the advice you have with your Realtor and how good the information you get is.  I explain to my clients how important it is to have someone on your side during this critical period, to assess the real interest that exists out there for your property.  The tools your Realtor uses are critical too.  It is essential to know: - number of showings, and feed-back, - number of page views on the various web sites, - how many people are looking at the disclosures online, and what exactly they are looking at.  Not all tools get you this information, and not all agents take the care to sift through it. Finally, it is critical that your Realtor follow closely any interested party (agent or principal), and answers questions as best as possible; indeed any unanswered question has a dollar amount attached to it.  Better informed buyers will bring you an offer, and one additional offer may mean a big difference in your final sales price.

As always, thank you so much for reading, and if you like what you read, let your friends know!

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.