Real Estate Silicon Valley - Price Seasonality

Here is an update on my regular graphs on the seasonality of prices in the Valley.  This graph shows the peaks in the County of Santa Clara (mostly = the Silicon Valley) which includes among other big city names: Santa Clara, San Jose, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Palo Alto, - all big locations for the high tech industry.

As expected, the months of Feb to May show the highest average prices every year, followed by a (small) dip in summer, and a small bump in September-October, and again another slow-down in Nov.-Dec..   As in previous blogs, I'd like to point out that all of this is statistical, and does not necessarily mean that a given property will sell for more or less depending on the month.  It does mean that over large numbers of sales, the trend exists.
The sales prices for a given month show the following month, as transactions usually take about 3-4 weeks to close.


Click on the picture to see it full size.

Thank you for reading, and as always, if you like the post, do share it ;-)

Francis

Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight recent uptick)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Half of All US Homes Are More Valuable than Pre-Recession Peak

Half of All US Homes Are More Valuable than Pre-Recession Peak.

A decade after the U.S. housing market collapsed, half of the country's homes have regained the value they lost during the recession, according to the June Zillow Real Estate Market Report.

Nationally, the median home value is $217,300, up 8.3 percent over the past year and 8.4 percent above the highest point of the housing bubble. The median home value has surpassed its bubble peak level in 21 of the nation's 35 largest housing markets.

In places that have seen some of the strongest growth since the market crashed, nearly every home is now more valuable than it was during the boom years. However it is not the same everywhere in the Country, and this article implies that there are still about 1/2 of the homes which have not caught up yet with the pre-recession levels.  

Which in my mind is a good reminder that a financial crisis leaves long-lasting scars, and that prudence should be the norm when it comes to financial markets.

Thank you for reading, and let me know when you have a real estate question or need.
Francis

Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight recent uptick)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

California Home Price Fundamentals

California Home Price Fundamentals.

Check out this interactive map of the “Home Price Fundamentals” for California, and individual Counties.

The interactive tool is provided by the California Association of Realtors (CAR)

Some of these graphs are most interesting, like the one called “Years of Savings Required for Down payment”, which is now close to 20.  The one called “Price to Income Ratio” shows that it takes about 8.3 years of paychecks to purchase the median priced home in California right now.

 

If you look at the County of Santa Clara though, the figures are staggering: it takes over 11 years of salary to afford the median priced home, and it takes over 26 years of savings (at 6% of savings rate) to afford the typical 20% down payment.

It also shows that in California, if you are in the median, it takes about 59% of the yearly income to pay for your mortgage...

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight recent uptick)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

What Home Buyers Want...

From the California Association of Realtors, and Realtor.com:
these are the attributes most likely to be seeked by homebuyers:

Another thing that I would definitely add to this picture is, for buyers 55+ and older:
- a one-level property with no stairs.
... and in general, my experience is that would-be home buyers are more attracted by homes with a lot of natural light and an open floor plan, and will sacrifice other features in order to get that.

Francis
Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight recent decline)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Home prices going forward in the US... & Bay Area

US house prices are going to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay: Reuters poll   
Source: CNBC Article

An acute shortage of affordable homes in the United States will continue over the coming year, according to a majority of property market analysts polled by Reuters, driving prices up faster than inflation and wage growth.

The latest poll of nearly 45 analysts taken May 16-June 5 showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 cities is expected to gain a further 5.7 percent this year.
That compared to predictions for average earnings growth of 2.8 percent and inflation of 2.5 percent 2018, according to a separate Reuters poll of economists.

U.S. house prices are then forecast to rise 4.3 percent next year and 3.6 percent in 2020.

A further breakdown of the April data showed the inventory of existing homes had declined for 35 straight months on an annual basis while the median house price was up for a 74th consecutive month.

About 80 percent of nearly 40 analysts who answered an extra question said the already tight supply of affordable homes in the United States will either stay the same or fall over the next 12 months.

In the Bay Area, things are not better.  The ratio of home completions to job growth is still very small, which will keep pressure on home prices here too:

.. while according to this article from the Mercury News, the nation's top three most expensive places for renters are here in the Bay Area...

Thank you for reading,

Francis
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
Price your home now
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

New Surprising Buyers Demographics

New Surprising Buyers Demographics:

According to a new report by Veritas Urbis Economics, the landscape of buyers is changing in surprising ways as compared to  35 years ago.

According to this Housing Wire article by Kelsey Ramirez:
- the share of women as buyers has increased from 18.9% in 1981 to 46.4% in 2017,
- single women homebuyers make up 18.9% of all buyers, when it was just 9.1% in 1981,
- the share of households over 55 increased to 27.8% in 2017 (it was 16.1% in 1981),
- homebuyers under 35 made up 52% of all buyers in 1981, they are now under 34%.

How does it play out in the Bay Area of San Francisco, the Silicon Valley?
I don't think we fall within those stats very well when it comes to age.  In my (limited) experience, in the local market, there are quite a few younger households among the buyers, and as far as households over 55, they make up a lot of the sellers, not buyers: as people age, they are likely to sell their home at some point, and in that case they most often leave the area.  Typically this demographic segment does not buy in the Valley as prices and property taxes are too high for the retired population.  Although we do have a portion of the elderly buyers who are moving down, after selling a property that has become too large or far away for them.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
Price your home now
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Who is Buying Homes, Nationwide?

Yes indeed, who is buying homes nowadays in the U.S.?
This little graph summarizes well some interesting statistics, like for instance the fact that more single women buy a place than young single men, but still 65% of all buyers were married couples.
With regards to women buying a home alone, this article (for the Realtor Magazine) also indicates that in some areas home builders design their homes with women in mind: in some of their developments, more than 50% of buyers are single women.

Thank you for reading,
and let me know if I can help you with any real estate questions.

Best regards,
Francis


Price your home online

Silicon Valley real estate specialist

Detailed, local trends etc...

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

The Effect of Interest Rates Increase

What happens to your mortgage payments when interest rates change?

For all buyers trying to get in contract right now, the same question is on everyone's mind: what are interest rates today, and how much is my loan payment going to be after my offer is accepted?

This informational slide below, compliments of the California Association of Realtors, gives us a pretty good idea on the impact of any change in the rates:

Also, here is a good link for current mortgage rates, to keep abreast of interest rates in general.

Tip: unless you are a gambler, it is usually a good idea to lock the rate the moment you are in contract to purchase a home.
Should 30-yr fixed rates increase too much on you, and you cannot qualify for the same amount any longer, you may have to consider a loan that would be fixed for a few years, and which then becomes adjustable.  These are the "3-yr, or 5-yr, or 7-yr fixed then adjustable" loans.  The starting rate, on which you are qualified by the lender, is lower, and that in turn allows you to qualify for a larger loan amount.  Ask your lender to advise you on the matter.

Let me know if I can help with any of your real estate questions!

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Price your home online

Silicon Valley real estate specialist

Detailed, local trends etc...

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.