Perspective on the Real Estate Market - Silicon Valley - USA

A perspective on the real estate market in the US, and in the Silicon Valley - the Bay Area of San Francisco.

As I update this amazing graph every year around the month of April - May, I cannot stop being amazed at the evolution of prices in our corner of the world.
This graph makes me think somewhat about the technical progress of the past 3 decades  - also unique to our generation.  Although obviously it is not in direct correlation to scientific discoveries, since it is a reflection of other factors like supply and demand, economic upticks and downturns and geographic particularities, the graph is as extreme in its own way, and covers a time frame that is the same.

Click to see a larger graph.

What happens after the end of 2016?  For now the market is still a strong sellers' market in most of the US regions. 
Nationwide the median home value is now higher than right before the "Big Crisis", at $198,000, according to the April Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports (Svenja Gudell article).
However, let's not forget that this is not true of all of the US: in 17 of the 32 largest metropolitan housing markets prices are still below-peak (like in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami).

Here in the Silicon Valley the market remains very much a seller's market. At this point, I believe the annual appreciation will be easily around 6-8%.  The areas with the lowest average prices may even show a higher rate of appreciation.  Multiple offers are the norm, and cash is king...

Thank you for reading,
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
Check your Home Value
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Bay Area: A (long) Perspective On Prices.

Bay Area, Santa Clara County, California State, and the US:

A long perpective on prices, since 1968.

A picture is worth a thousand words... This graph that I have updated for several years now shows the evolution of the median price of a single family residence at the County level, the 9-County region of the Bay Area, and compares them with the median price at the California level, and at the US level.

 

It shows that really, only the great Crisis of 2008- 2009 had a significant impact on prices over a whole year period.  The earthquake of 1989 definitely stopped prices from going up (along with an economic slow-down), starting a long drawn-out period of time when prices were essentially flat.  The dot-com bubble collapse in 2000 and 2001, coupled with 9/11 also had a significant impact on the curve.  After 2 or 3 years, prices started to go up again at all levels, but more acutely in the Bay Area and in California.

Pls click on graph for a full size picture.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A worthy local non-profit organization: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

2013 Cal. Annual Housing Market Survey

The Annual Housing Market Surveys conducted by the California Association of Realtors is always full of interesting tidbits, some of them not so small in fact.  All these facts, figures, percentages are fascinating if you like figures. 
-- If you are not so much interested in the statistics of the California real estate market, I would skip this blog.
If on the other hand you are curious about it, with a macro vision of the market, it yields some interesting thoughts and points.  Here it is:

C.A.R. Releases “2013 Annual Housing Market Survey”

Nearly half (49.5 percent) of all homes sold in 2013 were sold above asking price, nearly twice the share in 2012 (25.9 percent) and triple the share in 2011 (16.6 percent).  The 2013 figure was more than twice the long-run average of 18 percent during the past 20 years.  For homes that sold above the list price in 2013, the median premium paid over the list price was 4.8 percent, unchanged from 2012.  Note: in Palo Alto, the average ratio of Sales price over List price is 111.7%.

For the third consecutive year, an increasing number of home sellers – nearly half – planned on purchasing another home in the future.

The shortage of housing supply intensified further this year, leading to heightened market competition and more multiple offers, with more than seven of 10 home sales (72 percent) receiving multiple offers in 2013, up from 57 percent in 2012.  The 2013 figure was the highest in at least the past 15 years, with each home receiving an average of 5.7 offers, up from 4.2 offers in 2012 and 3.5 offers in 2011.  Note: in Palo Alto and Los Altos, 10 to 20 offers are fairly common.   

The distressed market continued to be the most competitive segment of the market, with more than 9 in 10 (91 percent) real estate-owned (REO) properties attracting multiple offers, an increase from 71 percent in 2012. The short sale market was less intense than the REO market, but still 3/4 of all sales received more than one offer, a jump from 66 percent in 2012.  There is no "deal" in the local real estate market...
Close to seven of 10 equity sales received multiple offers in 2013, a surge from 51 percent in 2012.
More information on the CAR website.

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

California - a history of home prices...

California, a history of home prices...

 

Click to read better

What a trip! Difficult to imagine, if you purchased your home in the 70's, what it would be like today.

Did you buy your house in that decade?  what's your experience: how much is your home worth today?

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.

Coming soon: The Peninsula French Fair
Sat. March 23rd