Perspective on the Real Estate Market - Silicon Valley - USA

A perspective on the real estate market in the US, and in the Silicon Valley - the Bay Area of San Francisco.

As I update this amazing graph every year around the month of April - May, I cannot stop being amazed at the evolution of prices in our corner of the world.
This graph makes me think somewhat about the technical progress of the past 3 decades  - also unique to our generation.  Although obviously it is not in direct correlation to scientific discoveries, since it is a reflection of other factors like supply and demand, economic upticks and downturns and geographic particularities, the graph is as extreme in its own way, and covers a time frame that is the same.

Click to see a larger graph.

What happens after the end of 2016?  For now the market is still a strong sellers' market in most of the US regions. 
Nationwide the median home value is now higher than right before the "Big Crisis", at $198,000, according to the April Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports (Svenja Gudell article).
However, let's not forget that this is not true of all of the US: in 17 of the 32 largest metropolitan housing markets prices are still below-peak (like in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami).

Here in the Silicon Valley the market remains very much a seller's market. At this point, I believe the annual appreciation will be easily around 6-8%.  The areas with the lowest average prices may even show a higher rate of appreciation.  Multiple offers are the norm, and cash is king...

Thank you for reading,
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
Check your Home Value
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Santa Clara County: Price evolution.

'tis the time of year: how did sales prices fare in the County of Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) for the past 2 years?  This blog looks at the price of houses only: Single Family Residences.

Looking at the graph below, one can see the curves of median prices and average prices, month by month.  They are similar, but not equal though:
- over the period of the last two years, the median price went up 18%, from a median of $813k in Jan. 2015 to a median of $963k in Dec. of 2016.
- this is a much higher appreciation than the average price, which went up only 6% from $1.13 million in Jan. 2015 to $1.2 million the month of Dec. 2016.

As a reminder, this median price means that half of all buyers bought a house over $963k, and half bought a house under that price.

Something apparent in this kind of graph (which I publish regularly over the years) is the evolution over the course of the year: prices go up as a whole in general during the first 6 months of the year, and have a tendency to go down from there until the end of the year - with the exception of Sept. and October, when there is a regain in activity.

This is difficult to interpret completely: it does not mean necessarily that the value of a specific house will go down at that time, nor that it is not a good time to sell in November or December.  What it does mean instead is that statistically, more houses of a lower value sell during those periods, and this could be because of many reasons.
One of them, for instance, could be that people in a higher price range can wait for a "better" time to sell: the traditionally "active" real estate season of January to June.  It could be that more people "have" to sell at the end of the year;  more pressure means less room for negotiation.
What is also true though is that a beautiful remodeled home in a desirable neighborhood will probably not loose any value even at the end of the year, at least in our area of the US.

Finally, as a reminder that we always have to take graphs and statistics with a grain of salt, the same figures translate into the following:

Average prices for 2015:  $1.246 million
                         for 2016:  $1.292 million.  This is an increase of 3.7%

Median price for 2015:  $950k
                      for 2016: $1.02 million.  This is an increase of 7.4%

This is a better representation of the market as we follow the market over the years:  from year to year, instead of from a given month to another given month.

To make sense of the evolution of prices in your own local area, or to price your home, do contact me.
Thank you for reading,
Francis


PS: Detailed info per County always available on my web site at:  www.frolland.com under the tab: "Local Info and Stats".

Santa Clara County 2016 yearly report.
San Mateo County 2016 yearly report.