Interest Rates Above 5?

It's hard to believe but interest rates are not that high, when you look at them with a 10 or 20-year perspective..

Click on picture to see a larger version.

Of course, we are now used to paying little when we take on a mortgage, and who did not refinance in the past 8 years?  So it looks expensive now to consider a new mortgage - but 10 years ago we were looking at around 6%.
We all hope we don't go back there...

Still, a majority of renters say they want to buy, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight regular uptick)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Second Harvest Food Bank Santa Clara County.

Adjustable-rate mortgages regain popularity as prices, rates rise

Adjustable-rate mortgages are again gaining in popularity despite practically vanishing during the housing bust. Since home prices and interest rates rose last year, more people have turned to adjustable mortgages to keep their monthly payments affordable, with such mortgages offering a lower initial rate. However, careful! - the rate can rise over time with market changes.

Read the article from the LA times by Andrew Khouri.

Also, Households saved just 4.2 percent of the after-tax income in November. The average was close to 6 percent from 2009 until 2011. Wealth gains from existing assets, such as rising home values, may explain why households are saving less, according to this blog from the Wall Street Journal.

Are we back to what I call "aggressive financial living"? Hum, a trend to keep an eye on...

Thanks for reading!
Francis


Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

Effect of interest rates on affordability...

December 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook
Freddie Mac released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December showing that housing affordability is being challenged as the year comes to an end.

Highlights from the Freddie Mac Study show that:

• At a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage that prevailed in the third quarter of 2013, more than 70 percent of the country remained affordable. All of the North Central region remained affordable, while just 36 percent of the West remained affordable.
• At a 5 percent rate (and no change in prices/income) approximately 63 percent of the country would be affordable, at 6 percent mortgage rates 55 percent would be affordable, and at 7 percent mortgage rates only 35 percent of the country would be affordable.
• On the plus side, existing homeowners' housing payment-to-income ratio has fallen to an average of 7.9 percent, its lowest level since 1980, a positive sign for sustainable homeownership.

See an interactive map of housing affordability, depending on interest rates.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Great local Nonprofit in the Valley:  Community Services Agency.

New Homes Sales vs Interest Rates - opposite direction...

The rise in interest rates may be a challenge for the real estate market in 2014, (although I have to point out: this is nationwide):

• During 2013, increases in mortgage rates corresponded with declines in home buying, and in light of shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus effort, the trend is expected to continue.

• When the Fed first announced it would consider scaling back its bond-buying program, mortgage interest rates spiked in May. As a result, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales dropped by 4 percent from the prior month.
• In contrast, mortgage rates dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point during October just as new home sales surged 18 percent.
• In mid-December, the Fed announced that it will begin tapering its asset purchase program, but the Fed is only reducing its monthly buys of mortgage securities and Treasuries by just $10 billion.

-  If mortgage interest rates increase a little, some analysts have stressed that any such rate increases will see the recovery slow rather than reverse.

• The interest rate on U.S. Treasury notes is also increasing, which could signal higher interest rates ahead because it is used as a reference point for the cost of borrowed money for U.S. consumers and businesses.

See the corresponding graphs on this page of the Wall Street Journal.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

The effect of interest rate change...

It is easier to visualize what happens to a mortgage payment when the interest rates go up or down.
The visual below is pretty good at showing it, I thought:

Looking for some good resources for lenders? Do not hesitate to call on me,

Thank you,

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate
Local market: Smart graphs

Note: our next free E-Waste collection and shredding event will be on: Sat. 4/6/13, at our Coldwell Banker office at 161 S. San Antonio Rd, Los Altos. Times: E-Waste 9am to 4 pm. Shredding: 10 am to 2 pm.

Low Rates ...

Taking advantage of low rates--


Mortgage rates continue to set new record lows, leaving many home buyers and refinancers wondering how low rates can go and how to capture the best rates now.

- Many economists are forecasting that mortgage rates will rise again later this year as the American economy gradually improves and as more global investors turn to the U.S. as a safe haven for money.

- The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.71 percent the week of June 14.

- The rate had averaged 3.9 percent three months earlier and 4.5 percent a year earlier.

- According to one economist, rates could possibly fall further, perhaps as much as a quarter of a percentage point, but it is more likely that they would start a “slow drift” upward.

- Those planning to refinance or buy a home in the next two or three months might want to consider locking in a mortgage rate now.

- Borrowers with rate locks, with a built-in deadline, often receive priority treatment from lenders, because the borrower is telling the lender that he or she is serious about closing soon.

- Lock-in costs and policies vary widely, and are based partly on the time frame the borrower wants covered. Most borrowers will need a 60- to 90-day lock.

If interest rates continue to fall during the lock period, borrowers can ask the lender to rewrite the rate lock at an additional cost, or obtain a “float-down” provision in the original agreement. A lock with a float-down agreement allows the borrower to change the rate, often only once, before closing on the mortgage. This option is generally more expensive than a standard lock.

Read the full story, on this article of the New York Times.

Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

useful links

Will you want some cash with that ?...

Freddie Mac reported this week that 79 % of homeowners who refinanced their first-lien home mortgage either maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying-in additional money at the closing table in the first quarter of 2012.

Of these borrowers, 58 percent maintained about the same loan amount, and 21 percent of refinancing homeowners reduced their principal balance; the share of borrowers that kept about the same loan amount was the highest in the 26-year history of the analysis.

“Cash-out" borrowers, those who increased their loan balance by at least 5%, represented 21% of all refinance loans; the weighted average cash-out share during the 1985 to 2008 period was 50 percent.

The median interest rate reduction for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was about

1.5 % points, or a savings of about 27 % in interest rate, the largest percent reduction recorded in the 27 years of analysis. Over the first year of the refinance loan life, the median borrower will save about $2,900 in interest payments on a $200,000 loan.

More info on this Freddie Mac article.

Francis Rolland

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

Francis - on Trulia

Current Mortgage rates

House financing, refinancing? Hidden fees..

Let's be technical here, just a bit, to understand better what is in a loan "rate".

A hidden fee is set to rise
The guarantee fee – a hidden fee inside the interest rate quoted on a home mortgage – has been mandated by Congress to increase this spring, and other increases are likely later to take place later this year and next.

A little bit of background on the subject:

The guarantee fee has been charged by government sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for more than three decades. The fee does not show up in borrowers’ mortgage documents or good-faith estimates, and it is little known outside the industry. According to a Fannie Mae spokesman, the fee “gets incorporated into the underlying rate the borrower pays.”

An interest rate is usually made of up 3 parts: The largest goes to the bank or the investors who buy the loan; the smaller portion is for the mortgage servicer that collects monthly payments; and then there’s the guarantee fee. Fannie and Freddie charge guarantee fees as a form of insurance against default for the loans they acquire and resell to investors.

The guarantee fee will rise 10 basis points on April 1; the increase was included in the two-month extension of the payroll tax reduction last December. A basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

One way to avoid the guarantee fee is to use a lender that does not sell off its loans – for instance, a community bank or a credit union.

In addition to offsetting risks, the fees provide a primary source of revenue for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both organizations started raising fee rates in 2008 during the housing crisis, as foreclosure costs rose.

Read the full story in this New York Times article.

Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

useful links

Current Mortgage rates

Why it is a good time to buy real estate...

Real estate is positioned well for the future...

From our Coldwell Banker blog...
* "Baby boomers are in their prime real estate buying years and are 78 million strong.

* The Pew Research Center reports minority homeownership levels still have room for improvement. The gaps between white and minority households remain significant with homeownership rates for Asians (59.1 percent), African-Americans (47.5 percent) and Latinos (48.9 percent) well below the 74.9 percent among whites.

* Immigrants are moving to the U.S. by the tune of 1.1-1.5 million a year depending on the source. These are legal immigrants who add value to our country and society. They need housing.

* Echo boomers will likely have similar economic impact in coming years that their baby boomers parents have had through their lives. Echo boomers are born between 1977 and 1994 and are 73 million strong and according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, 4 million turn 21 each year.

* Household formation is also an important statistic. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University projects at least 1.25 million households will be created annually from 2010-2020 and will be led by the echo boomers.

* Between 2010 and 2020, the Census Bureau projects U.S. household growth to be in the range of 1.25 to 1.5 million per year, which will create an additional demand for housing. This should equate to a demand for 12.5 -15 million total new households during this decade.

* People move for lifestyle. There have been 4 million marriages and a record more than 8 million babies born in the last two years indicating there is demand for housing. Many of these growing families have not bought a home and are either renting or living with family as they save for a down payment. We know there is pent up demand." ....


Why is now a smart time to buy?

"I.I.I.P. Inventory, interest rates, incentives and price. In most markets around the nation, home inventory has increased giving buyers a greater choice. At the same time, mortgage rates remain at near historic lows and home prices have seemingly stabilized. 2010 saw median prices increase slightly by 0.2% to $172,900. This has made home affordability the best since at least 1973 and maybe ever."

Thanks for reading, and let me know how I can help, always!
Francis
Silicon Valley Real Estate
Los Altos Specialist

Rates:
Mortgage rates: Week ending 8/4/2011 30-yr. fixed: 4.39 fees/points: 0.8% 15-yr. fixed: 3.54 fees/points: 0.7% 1-yr. adjustable: 3.02% Fees/points: 0.5% (Source: Freddie Mac)

The real price of buying..

The real price of buying is the cost of buying.
Will prices continue to fall? Should I buy now?

While price is always one of the major concerns when buying a property, cost and affordability should be at the forefront of your considerations as a buyer.

That means you have to take into account what your monthly payment will be, considering not only the price of the home but also the interest rate of your mortgage. Waiting for prices to bottom out while rates are increasing can wind up costing a lot more.

So the price of the property is, in a way, not the thing to focus on: if interest rates are low enough, the home that will make you happy could be a lot lower in price than you'd think. - I know, I know, no one wants to over pay for a property; but this is an other matter - and so "relative".

We cannot control what the market will be doing, but we can control how we address our housing expenses. 

So I say, look at what is comfortable to own, without breaking the bank, and see if something fits the bill.

On the subject of interest rates:  all lending and financing institutions, like Fannie Mae (FNMA – the Federal National Mortgage Association), Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation), the National Assocation of Realtors, PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) and the Mortgage Bankers Association are all projecting rising interest rates over the next several quarters.

Although I have to say, personally, that I did not expect rates to stay so low so long.  So who knows.  If you have an opinion, chime in!

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate
Silicon Valley Smart graphs