What's Motivating Moves During the Pandemic

Americans have been on the move for more reasons than just to snag record low mortgage rates, shows a new survey of 2,000 real estate agents from HomeLight.  The survey, conducted in a series of 7 separate polls from april to the end of June found the top moving motivators cited include the need for space (44%), a desire to buy versus rent (41%), and to relocate to the suburbs (37%).

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Meanwhile, in the Bay Area, the sales price is still higher than the ask price, on average, and buyers outnumber sellers.  Here are the latest figures for June, for the County of Santa Clara:

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...where one can see that prices did not go down with the pandemic.  In the trenches, what we see is sustained demand for housing.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
A noteworthy local non-profit event:  Community Services Agency - in Mountain View

Silicon Valley's Market Continues Its Upward Pace

Some news from the trenches, as of the 2nd week of June:  
At the Los Gatos-Saratoga District Virtual Breakfast Meeting this week, C.A.R. President-elect Dave Walsh was upbeat because weekly market stats he has tracked show the market is continuing on an upward pace. Sellers are returning to the market and buyers are even bidding on homes.

Walsh's data for Santa Clara County shows sales since March have been increasing to an average of 200 a week. Sales dropped to a mere 99 the week after county Shelter-in-Place order was imposed. 

Walsh said, "Our REALTORS® are very good at pulling buyers and sellers together no matter what the situation is, even in a pandemic. Our market is recovering faster than any other market in the state. We all are fortunate to be in Silicon Valley."

Many areas are hot. South County has been "on fire" with its affordable, expansive housing. Walsh said a reason for this is people are gravitating to larger open areas, away from cramped units in cities.

Milpitas has been hot from the start, according to Walsh. Santa Clara, Central San Jose and Sunnyvale "have never retracted and have stayed unbelievably hot with a zero slowdown." Santa Clara had 13 sales last week; its 4-week average is 10 sales. Central San Jose had seven sales last week; its 4-week average is five sales. Comparing last week's sales to their 4-week averages, these cities have exploded: Sunnyvale 19 sales (avg. 7), Cupertino 13 sales (avg. 7), Los Gatos 10 sales (avg. 6), Saratoga 8 sales (avg. 3). Positive changes are seen in Willow Glen, which had 17 sales last week (avg. 7) and Mountain View, 9 sales (avg. 3).

Since Santa Clara County's March 16 Shelter-in-Place order, 2,369 properties have been put under contract. Of those properties, 1,968 were priced below $2 million, 122 were priced over $3-7 million, and six properties sold at over $7 million.

"This tells us there is a lot of confidence in our marketplace, confidence in our consumers that work and live in Silicon Valley, confidence in employers and their stock portfolios. I cannot emphasize it enough. Our market is hot, our market is strong. If you price it correctly, it will sell." Walsh told members.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
A noteworthy local non-profit event:  Community Services Agency - in Mountain View

Emergency Savings - Affordability Challenges

One in Three adult Americans has no emergency savings.  I posted this blog in 2014, and I am sure it is true today.

According to this April 2014 article from HousingWire by Trey Garrison the housing industry will likely be impacted by the results of a new survey from NeighborWorks America, which serve as a stark reminder of affordability challenges. The survey found that almost 70 million working age Americans – about one-third – have no emergency savings. This highlights a primary problem facing potential homebuyers, as one in three homes are deemed unaffordable to the average buyer, and mortgage originations are reportedly at a 14-year low.

• Only 25 percent of American have enough saved to cover 30 days of living expenses.
• About one in five have enough savings to cover three months – about the average time of unemployment for many Americans – while 28 percent expect their emergency funds to cover a year.
• Approximately 29 percent of adult Americans have no emergency savings in place—whether to pay for the repair of a car that’s required to get to work, or fix a major household necessity such as a roof or furnace.
• Retirement and buying a home are the top savings goals at 28 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
• Just 5 percent of consumers say that they are currently saving to create a buffer in case of a financial emergency.
• 52 percent of people earning less than $40,000 said that they had no reserve.
  
  

Even though this is a nationwide study, California is not immune to the phenomenon obviously, and affordability concerns are certainly increased in areas of high prices like the Bay Area. I believe it is important to reflect on it.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
A noteworthy local non-profit event:  Community Services Agency - in Mountain View

Freddie Mac: Currently Low Mortgage Rates

Directly from the web site of Freddie Mac, the results of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®):

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending May 28, 2020, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.99 percent.  
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.62 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.70 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.46 percent.  
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.13 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.60 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! 

Update on the State of Real Estate in California and the Bay

Noted among the regular updates on the California real estate markets, from the California Association of Realtors, as of 5/27/20:

This was the first week in several months where it was more difficult to find negative impacts on the economy and housing market than it was to find signs optimism. And yet, even as the economy begins to heal, it is important to temper that hope with the difficult truth: even if the economy continues to gradually reopen and the leading indicators continue to improve, the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented and it will take time for us t

o recover. This is particularly true in a world where the new normal will likely look significantly different that our previous definition. On top of that, we will face both ongoing restrictions and a big learning curve on how to operate in a pre-vaccine world.

Consumer confidence finds bottom: After suffering from its worst decline in April in nearly 50 years, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up slightly in May. The index remains below 100 indicating that consumers are still pessimistic, but it is a slightly lower level of pessimism than in April. This supports the conclusion from a variety of other indicators that the economy and market found a bottom in mid-April and has begun to stabilize after roughly 2.5 months of sheltering in place.

Mortgage applications regain lost ground: Homebuyer demand is beginning to show signs of life as well as the U.S. recorded its 6th consecutive increase in new purchase-money applications. That brings the number of mortgage applications back above the pre-crisis levels of late February. .... California saw its 7th consecutive weekly gain in mortgage applications as well, though it also saw a bigger contraction in the immediate aftermath of the downturn, so it remains roughly 2% below 2019 levels.

Buyer demand coming back with more showings: Buyer demand is also expressing itself in the form of increased showings. Last week, the 7-day moving average of showings posted a 38% increase, which brought the index back to pre-outbreak levels. And although last week’s levels were still roughly 4% below 2019 levels, home showings have improved dramatically from mid-April when showings were falling by nearly 75% on a weekly basis and were well below 2019 levels.

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! 

Prices May Stay Pretty Stable in 2020

Prices may stay pretty stable in 2020?

Many clients ask me which direction prices will trend this year with the pandemic.

Some expect prices to go down, while others encounter multiple offers, at least here in the Silicon Valley.

For now, and just considering our local area, one thing is sure: the number of transactions has been cut roughly in half. But how prices will fare will depend mostly on the job market in both Santa Clara and San Mateo County.  And what we see a lot of is remote work, not so much lay offs (although unfortunately we will see some of that happen way too much).

In this article from Clare Trapasso, senior news editor of Realtor.com, the prediction is that prices will remain steady in 2020, because the inventory of homes has also gone down dramatically.  In the Silicon Valley where properties are still fairly scarce, my experience is that prices are currently soft, but this is compared to an early expectation of a strong price increase at the beginning of the year.  It is also not the case for prime, very desirable properties (i.e. very remodeled, or excellent location, or large lots, or just "rare finds").
Diana Olick, from CNBC, also reports a surge of multiple offers nationwide, with a majority of offers being made in a competitive environment in many local markets, from the East to the West.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Be sure to check this fabulous new listing in Palo Alto at: 3228 RossRd, near Midtown! Select "view full screen" at the bottom right for the best experience.

Impact of the Current Situation on Real Estate Activity

My clients ask: what is the current impact of the current situation on real estate activity?

The California Association of Realtors issued an update on the impact of Covid 19 which is pretty comprehensive.  This being said, many of my clients are asking me what is the impact locally.

The situation changes day to day, literally, with new changes in the regulations and limitations.

As of now, real estate is deemed an essential activity at the Federal level, and also at the California level, although many aspects of the regular activities of a Realtor are very strictly regulated.  Without going into the details, interactions with the public are to be limited to the extreme, the essential, and when they happen it has to be with all mandated precautions – which is of course very good, and welcome.

The market? About the same at this point: there are much fewer properties on the market now, but there are fewer showings for obvious reasons.  It is an excellent time to sell a property, and also a good time to be actively looking for a home.  Precise protocols have to be put in place so that all parties are comfortable with the ways to proceed, and follow the advisories.  Will prices suffer or not?  A little too early to tell in my opinion.  I do expect the number of transactions to be smaller in April though.

What is also good to know is that nearly everything can be done virtually if you are seeking to sell your property, or if you are thinking of a purchase. Facetime or call or text me should you have any questions regarding the process in this new environment.

Thank you,

Francis

Home Valuation tool

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates   - low, with a lot of volatility.

Finding Ways to Stay Positive in these Challenging Times

Dear friends, clients,

In these challenging times, I have personally set a goal to stay positive and spread kindness, as everyone goes through some kind of anxiety. Here are a few simple, effective ideas to make sure we see the silver lining each day.

• Get outdoors. Walk, garden or just take time to reflect and smell the roses.
• Use FaceTime, Teams or any other social media way or communication, or pick up the phone to check in on friends, family, neighbors and colleagues.
• Spread some kindness each day. Nextdoor lets you see what others in your community may need. Give back – helping others helps you too.
• Have a laugh! Share some jokes or funny videos to alleviate stress and lighten up with laughter.
• Be grateful. Leave a reminder in your phone each day to give thanks for all the good in your life.
• Schedule some downtime from social media and the latest headlines. Quiet time is essential, and you might find a break from the headlines brightens your day.

Remember, today's issues are temporary, and hopefully will bring long lasting lessons. How can we help bring a better tomorrow? I believe we can stay strong and persevere. Please feel free to contact me for any reason – whether you have real estate questions (yes, most things can be done remotely), or you just need someone to talk to. We'll get through this together!  


Thank you for reading, and stay safe!


Francis

My Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   Time to refinance? Give me a call.