Seasonality of real estate sales prices - Silicon Valley

To piggy-back on one of my earlier blogs on the evolution of prices in the Silicon Valley, here is an updated graph showing the median price of a residential piece of property in the County of Santa Clara, between a bit before Jan 1, 2015, and right now: July of 2017.





















Click on the graph to see it larger.

The green arrows point to a seasonal low in Aug./ September (corresponding to August sales) and a movement downwards in january, which corresponds to sales in November and December.
As mentioned in my previous blog, it does not mean necessarily that the same property will sell for less in December than in January, but it does mean that more properties of a lower value sold in November / December than in January.  One can see that in February the median price starts going higher (these are the January sales).

Will the same property sell for less during those times?  It is open to question, but my experience is that a prime piece of real estate, with good location, very good condition etc... will sell for about the same price.  By experience, if a property is not top notch, it may suffer somewhat from the timing.   Otherwise, these ups and downs relate to the fact that:
- many people are away during the months of July and August,
- many people wait for right after Labor Day to put a property on the market (feeling that fewer people will be in the market to buy a home, because away on vacation),
- fewer people are looking to buy in November and December because of the holidays and the weather.
- statistically, more homes go on the market during those slower times because they have to.  This can  also explain why the sales price is lower.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
Check your Home Value
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

California real estate: to keep in perspective...

To keep in perspective:

- California's largest gain in annual median price was in 1977: it went up 28.1% from 1976.

- California median price was $3,527 in 1940, and it was $447,010 in 2014.

- The largest decline in annual median price was in 2008: it dropped 37.8% from 2007.

- Between 1968 and 2014, the median price for single family homes has increased at an annual rate of 6.6%.
Source: California Association of Realtors.

Local Inventory:
In the County of Santa Clara, the number of houses and condominiums on the market went up to 7000-7500 in 2008.
By contrast, it was around 700 to 800 in the first few months of 2015.
This is an essential element of the real estate market locally, and the fact that it is currently (as of the last week of September) at around 1680 is also important: it is a relatively better time to look at buying a property than at the beginning of the year.  The inventory has been steadily increasing.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

 

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
A noteworthy local non-profit event:  Second Harvest Food Bank

Median Sales Price - Santa Clara County - Good time to buy now?

Median sales price in Santa Clara County: is it a good time to buy now?

The time is about right now for an update on this fairly important matter, especially for buyers who have been in the market to buy for a while, or are thinking of making a move in the near future.
My last post on the subject, "the ratio of sales price over list price", and last year's post in September "the evolution of average prices" provide some perspective on this (as well as an article last week end in the SF Chronicle, BTW).

Below is the graph showing the monthly change in median price for all homes (houses and condos) sold in the County of Santa Clara, since the beginning of last year (2014).  On this graph we see the median price, and not the average price.  "Median Price" means this: the same number of homes sold over that price, as the number that sold under that price. But one can see that either way, the trend is similar to the one that the average price followed last year.

All in all, it means that it is statistically a better time to buy during the last months of the year than during the first six months of the year, when prices go up - because more people are looking, and need to buy during those months, to be settled in for the next school year.  Probably it also means that fewer people are looking to buy as we get closer to the winter months, and the Holidays.  It can also mean that the homes that sell during that time are in general less expensive than during the first 6 months (smaller homes may be?).  It is not a definitive call that a house will be bought for less money all things considered, but it certainly is worth keeping in mind the seasonal trend.

One last remark on the subject: the trends in years past are a lot more pronounced.  In the past 2 years, or so, the market is such a sellers' market that the slowdown in the market is just mild towards the end of the year.  One should remember that it is still very much a sellers' market, and that there continues to be a strong competition among buyers for the nicest homes.  But my experience has been that buyers are less stressed when buying a house closer to the end of the year.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Bay Area home prices leveling off.

Prices in the Bay Area at large are leveling off.

Not everywhere, and not all in the same manner.  But DataQuick, the La Jolla-based real estate information services firm, said the median sale price for new and existing homes in the region in July stayed at a 3-month plateau at $617,000.  That was down .2 % from June's median price but up 9.8 % from the $562,000 median in July 2013. 

Complete information along the Peninsula can be found in this Coldwell Banker article, with the following remarks with regards to the area close to Los Altos and Palo Alto, and referred to as "Silicon Valley" (always more competitive):


...... Silicon Valley – The market is a bit spotty, according to our Cupertino manager. The demand for

great houses with Cupertino schools is as high as ever, but certain segments seem to have cooled off. It’s August, after all! Our Los Altos manager reports that there is lower inventory currently in most of the local cities, which is basically seasonal. But the stagers are booked out the whole month of September, so that means some new inventory hopefully. Downtown Mountain View houses often sell within one week. The condos are still getting strong activity with multiples either the next week or following. Palo Alto still has low inventory, but if the house is priced too high, it doesn’t sell. The best sections of town still lack inventory and there are buyers lined up for each one. Last week a house in old Palo Alto sold for more than 1M over list ($6,700,000) with multiple offers. Los Altos Hills with Palo Alto schools attract many buyers and multiple offers. North Los Altos is still in huge demand as is most of the city and Mountain View west of El Camino. Sunnyvale is still occasionally seeing a new all-time high. In Los Gatos, inventory is tightening up even more as school heads back into session. San Jose-Almaden agents are not seeing as many multiple offers in Blossom Valley and Santa Teresa but they are in Almaden and Cambrian. One listing in Cambrian had 20 offers. Our San Jose Main office manager said the local market is seeing another drop in inventory, while buyer demand has pulled back as well. Open houses are well attending with some open houses having 40 groups each day on the opening weekends. Multiple offers are still prevalent, but the sheer number of offers has seemed to decrease. All signs indicate that we will have a strong fall. The local Willow Glen listing inventory remains consistent where it has been the last month. Agents are waiting to see if the post Labor Day weekend will bring a surge of new listings for the fall selling season. With tight inventory and strong buyer demand agents there have seen heavy open house traffic. With this increased demand agents starting to see the pre-emptive offers, multiple offers and aggressive offers way over asking price. The market is getting hot again in Willow Glen. ...

thank you for reading!
Francis


Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations - now called:
Mentor Tutor Connection.

An unbalanced market...

As we advance deeper inside the year 2013, the sales figures start showing how much the market has been ... to put it mildly, unbalanced.
Here in this statistical recap coming from the CAR (California Assocation of Realtors) one can see how much the various Counties in the Bay Area have appreciated from March 2012 to March 2013.

Even though this is not exactly the 1-year appreciation, but only the jump from one month in 2012 to the same month in 2013, it certainly gives a good idea of the appreciation we are going to see at the end of the year, because in fact it is pretty much the same story month after month.

It sure is a steep rate of appreciation.  What do you think? Are we looking at a bubble, or does it reflect accurately the health of the local economy?

Thank you for reading,
Francis
Silicon Valley Real Estate

Smart stats

Some perspective on the market...

Finally, after a long waiting, CAR - the California Association of Realtors - released the figures that enable me to make my yearly update of the following graphs.

One set of figures is missing as the information is compiled in a different way: the median price for the Bay Area (comprised of the nine Counties around the Bay Area).

Still, interesting to have some perspective on prices over such a long period of time....

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

useful links

Current Mortgage rates

Mountain View prices: condos vs houses

To piggy back on my last blog, it is definitely interesting to research and compare how different areas within Mountain View (or any City for that matter) may have fared in the past 4 years, whether in the condominium market or the house market.  But how did houses fare vs condominiums?

It turns out that they did about the same:  from the average price in 2006 to the average price in 2010, condominiums lost 4.4% in value, while houses lost 3.4%  - a close contest.  The only thing one can see is that the condominium market went down faster than the house market in 2008 - in average figures... not in median figures.

It mirrors fairly closely what the County of Santa Clara experienced.  Are you curious about your area?  Let me know I am curious too.

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate

A link worthy of interest:  Community Services Agency