Refinancing & the Economy .. A Missing Link ...

There is a lot of noise right now about the “occupy wall street” movement. And the economy is giving ulcers to everyone. The world is full of catch 22’s in many important areas. Consider the following situation if you have a second with me, and tell me if this is not illogical:

Someone wants to refinance their property but the value has gone down so much that it is under the value of the loan. The rules of the banks, the way they are right now, are such that the bank will not allow the borrower to refinance the same amount of loan as before (because of the “loan-to-value ratios” rules). How does that make sense? The lender is taking a much bigger risk in most cases by leaving someone obligated to pay a high interest rate that will sink them, when they could pay a lower rate and have a better chance of affording their loan.

The borrower, in front of such an illogical catch 22, decides to stop paying and to go to foreclosure. If you look at my previous blog, it is clear to many analysts that a lot of these borrowers are not inherently a “bad risk”, just because they decided to default on a loan that they cannot change. When these borrowers have only one default on their record, and it is this kind of default, they are often ready to buy something else, at today’s value, with today’s interest rate. It is often cheaper than to rent. But they cannot do it because of their credit history (since they just defaulted on a loan).

The system is blocked. It is thought that many people, if they were allowed to buy a new property, would prefer that option to renting.

  - 1/ the market would be a lot less depressed, as many properties would sell instead of sitting forever,

  - 2/ because more properties would sell, the market values would be more sustained and in many cases would slightly go up. This in turn would help the banks, since the total market value of their distressed properties would be higher.

This blog does not go into judging anyone, or deciding if it would be fair to do this or that. But the difficulty to refinance falls under rules that are counter-intuitive in my opinion.

As I write this I learn that the HARP program (see one of my previous blogs on refinancing) has just been expanded to the end of 2013, and removed the 125% ceiling on “loan-to-value” cap for fixed rate mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. More on this PDF from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.  However, I need to underline that it is for mortgages backed by FNMA and Freddie Mac only...

Still, it is estimated that between 1.5 and 2 million people may take advantage of these new rules.  (just heard on NPR).

Couldn't all the banks think in the same manner, for their own ultimate good? And couldn't they waive some qualifying rules on a case-by-case basis? - It would make a lot of "cents" to them in the end.

Thanks for reading,

Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

useful links

Study: Homeowners Who Default on Mortgage Alone Not a Credit Risk

Today, many homeowners who defaulted on their mortgage payments have asked the question, "Will my mortgage delinquencies make me a higher credit risk to lenders?"

Good question.

On the surface, it is obvious that falling behind and becoming consistently delinquent on any bill is not a financially sound thing to do. However, your credit rating may not be as tarnished as some would leave you to believe.

A homeowner needs to consider what establishes poor credit and good credit in the eyes of the lender. Surprisingly enough, if you have other debt that you are in good standing with, such as credit cards or an auto loan, you will be less likely deemed as a credit risk. Those who have defaulted on their mortgage payment as well as other accounts are higher risks to a lending institution. The study below reveals why.

Mortgage-Only Defaulters

Transunion. , a global leader in credit and information management, released a study which stated, "...consumers who only defaulted on their mortgage during the economic recession were far better risks than those consumers who went delinquent on multiple credit accounts." This particular study explained that consumers, who were only default with their mortgage payment, displayed stronger ability to stay current with other loans.
"There appears to be a pocket of opportunity among mortgage-only defaulters that is not the result of excess liquidity, but rather the unique circumstances of the recent recession," said Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "This new market segment that the recession created is an important one for lenders to understand. They have the potential, today, to be stronger and more reliable customers."

Breaking it down…
• The lack of cash flow that resulted in defaulted mortgage payments does not by itself make the consumer “high risk” to a lender.
• You are a risk if you have multiple delinquencies on other accounts including the mortgage.
• You are not a risk if you have mortgage-only defaults but are current with other debt, such as a car loan or credit card.

In conclusion, if you are a mortgage-only defaulter you have more hope than those who are not and should not consider yourself a high risk. For more information, here is the link again to the Transunion study Mortgage-only Defaulters.

Let me know, as always, how I can help!
Francis

Silicon Valley Specialist
Local _Real Estate resources
Silicon Valley Market Trends