New Homes Sales vs Interest Rates - opposite direction...

The rise in interest rates may be a challenge for the real estate market in 2014, (although I have to point out: this is nationwide):

• During 2013, increases in mortgage rates corresponded with declines in home buying, and in light of shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus effort, the trend is expected to continue.

• When the Fed first announced it would consider scaling back its bond-buying program, mortgage interest rates spiked in May. As a result, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales dropped by 4 percent from the prior month.
• In contrast, mortgage rates dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point during October just as new home sales surged 18 percent.
• In mid-December, the Fed announced that it will begin tapering its asset purchase program, but the Fed is only reducing its monthly buys of mortgage securities and Treasuries by just $10 billion.

-  If mortgage interest rates increase a little, some analysts have stressed that any such rate increases will see the recovery slow rather than reverse.

• The interest rate on U.S. Treasury notes is also increasing, which could signal higher interest rates ahead because it is used as a reference point for the cost of borrowed money for U.S. consumers and businesses.

See the corresponding graphs on this page of the Wall Street Journal.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

To keep in perspective: Sales Price Graphs 2012-2013

To piggy back on my last blog, let's look at values in our part of the Bay Area of San Francisco (Silicon Valley).

To keep some perspective on the market in our counties, let's look at the graphs (past 2 years) of the average sales price for residential housing (houses, and PUD's combined, which include all townhouses and condominiums),
in the County of Santa Clara first:

(click on the graph to enlarge)

 For this County, the ratio of the Sales Price to the List Price follows the curve below, which shows that from March to May of 2013, the market was the most heated:

 

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Looking at the County of San Mateo, for the same statistics:

 ... and the ratio of Sales Price to List Price, which shows that in that County the market remained even more heated and unbalanced than in the County of Santa Clara, for the 2nd half of 2013.

 

 A few things to note: 

- another thing to remember when looking for a home in both Counties is that as an average, prices are higher in San Mateo County than in Santa Clara County;

- the overbidding was just starting to warm up in 2012;

- finally, something that is noticeable from the stats is that prices did not go down much at the end of each year, from the highs of the middle of the year.  This is somewhat of a new phenomenon that I had mentioned in an earlier blog (last year in November).

 

Interested in local statistics for your own neighborhood, and the value of your assets?  Just let me know, I'll be glad to study it.

 

Thanks for reading!

Francis

 

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

To keep in perspective: California families struggle...

To keep things in perspective, which is always nice when you live in the Bay Area of San Francisco, I thought this article was worth reading.


According to the California Budget Project, a nonpartisan research group, many California families are struggling from paycheck to paycheck, and expensive housing, high childcare costs and rising healthcare expenses are the main factors.
Nearly one-third of households in the state spent at least half their income on rent.
Full article from the LA times, which also includes links to the richest and poorest cities in the US.  Source: LA Times - by Shan Li.

Happy New Year! and thank you for reading,
Francis
 
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Negative Equity in the US

Negative Equity in the US.

CoreLogic, a California based research firm, reported that as of the 3^rd quarter of 2013, the number of properties with a mortgage in the US is about 42,6 million.  About 6.4 million – or 13% – still have a negative equity. 

 

CoreLogic indicates that, of those 42.6 million properties with positive equity, 10 million have less than 20% equity, leaving them in a situation where it’s still hard to refinance due to underwriting constraints.

 

"Fewer than 7 million homeowners are underwater, with a total mortgage debt of $1.6 trillion," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Negative equity will decline even further in the coming quarters as the housing market continues to improve."

 

The state of Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgage properties in negative equity at 32.2%, followed by Florida (28.8%), Arizona (22.5%), Ohio (18%) and Georgia (17.8%).

HousingWire.com article by KerriAnn Panchuk

 PS: let’s remember that many transactions are cash: According to this very nice RealtyTrac study, all-cash purchases nationwide accounted for 40 percent of all sales of residential property in July.

 

Thanks for reading, and may you have an excellent Holiday Season!

Francis Rolland
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.