Automated valuation systems in real estate

Countless are the times when clients tell me that they believe the value of their home is “X” because Zillow or another automated valuation system on the internet said so. 

Automated home value estimates have been a popular tool for real estate search websites, and while these tools may satisfy clients’ needs for quick information, in many cases the information they provide is inaccurate.  Although many agents and brokers are aware of the limitations of these models, many consumers are not, and improper use of these tools can encourage mistakes.

Automated valuation models (AVM) are designed to predict a home’s price based on comparing it with similar properties in the area. They do this using county property record data from thousands of offices around the country, comparing several attributes such as square footage, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and other property features. This data cannot take into consideration the specifics of the neighborhood or the details of the properties (lot size, improvements, quality of the maintenance…).  It is my experience that while they can be a good first indication, and sometimes accurate, they miss the mark in roughly 30% to 40% of cases.  Where all homes are similar, like in a condominium complex or a given tract of identical homes, they may be quite accurate.  In places where each home is unique, in nature or in location, they can be quite off (think: Los Altos Hills, or Palo Alto to cite a few). 

As always with statistical data, a percentage of the evaluations will be accurate – but be careful it is not by mistake.  Also, figures do not know the market conditions, which can only be understood by a professional dealing with local sales 24/7.  I do not mean to be critical, but I just want to remind clients that these valuations should just be a first indication, not the final opinion of value.  Another way to look at it is, as we like to say in the business, "home valuation is not an exact science".

Read more details and the fullRE Insider interview.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Mars, Venus, and Real Estate...

As a full time agent, spending most of my time "in the trenches" I found this Real Estate News Release by Prudential quite refreshing and greatly informative, as it deals with people, attitudes, personal reactions and ... genders.  I had to look twice and - although one has to be careful with generalizations -  found some interesting trends that are not always apparent when you are buried in the details and in the heat of the action.  Also, I found their infographic illustration of their findings quite interesting.

Here is the Prudential Real Estate News Release I am referring to:

  View of Homeownership Differ by Gender
A new survey by Prudential Real Estate indicates that men and women don’t see eye to eye when it comes to homeownership and the responsibilities related to homebuying and selling.

Men claim to be more responsible for financial aspects

while women assume the lead for neighborhood research and planning portions of the process. While 39 percent of men in partnerships claim researching banks and securing a mortgage are completely their responsibility, 42 percent of women in partnerships indicated it is their sole

responsibility to manage appointments, and 34 percent take the lead in researching neighborhoods.

Women also seem to enjoy the process of purchasing a home more so than men. A full 87 percent of women said they enjoy looking at homes compared with 77 percent of men. Moreover, feelings associated with homeownership are more pronounced in women than in men. When asked about the reasons why homeownership is “very important,” more women associated it with a sense of pride or accomplishment (16 percent higher than men) and independence (11 percent higher). For men, “control over living space” and “more space for my family” were most important.  -- Complete News Release.

 

One last thought: different personalities will attract different people, and therefore each of us will have a different experience and perception of people's reactions.

What is your own experience?

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

2013 Cal. Annual Housing Market Survey

The Annual Housing Market Surveys conducted by the California Association of Realtors is always full of interesting tidbits, some of them not so small in fact.  All these facts, figures, percentages are fascinating if you like figures. 
-- If you are not so much interested in the statistics of the California real estate market, I would skip this blog.
If on the other hand you are curious about it, with a macro vision of the market, it yields some interesting thoughts and points.  Here it is:

C.A.R. Releases “2013 Annual Housing Market Survey”

Nearly half (49.5 percent) of all homes sold in 2013 were sold above asking price, nearly twice the share in 2012 (25.9 percent) and triple the share in 2011 (16.6 percent).  The 2013 figure was more than twice the long-run average of 18 percent during the past 20 years.  For homes that sold above the list price in 2013, the median premium paid over the list price was 4.8 percent, unchanged from 2012.  Note: in Palo Alto, the average ratio of Sales price over List price is 111.7%.

For the third consecutive year, an increasing number of home sellers – nearly half – planned on purchasing another home in the future.

The shortage of housing supply intensified further this year, leading to heightened market competition and more multiple offers, with more than seven of 10 home sales (72 percent) receiving multiple offers in 2013, up from 57 percent in 2012.  The 2013 figure was the highest in at least the past 15 years, with each home receiving an average of 5.7 offers, up from 4.2 offers in 2012 and 3.5 offers in 2011.  Note: in Palo Alto and Los Altos, 10 to 20 offers are fairly common.   

The distressed market continued to be the most competitive segment of the market, with more than 9 in 10 (91 percent) real estate-owned (REO) properties attracting multiple offers, an increase from 71 percent in 2012. The short sale market was less intense than the REO market, but still 3/4 of all sales received more than one offer, a jump from 66 percent in 2012.  There is no "deal" in the local real estate market...
Close to seven of 10 equity sales received multiple offers in 2013, a surge from 51 percent in 2012.
More information on the CAR website.

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

Haunted house anyone?

Realtor.com® Releases Haunted Housing Report
Realtor.com has released the results of its Haunted Housing Report, which explored consumer sentiments around their perceptions of "haunted" real estate. Survey results from nearly 1,400

respondents reveal consumer thresholds for purchasing haunted houses for sale, past experiences with spooky homes, popular "warning signs" of a haunted home, expected discounts when buying "perceived" haunted houses for sale and intolerable scary occurrences.

According to the survey, 26 percent of respondents indicated that they would consider purchasing a haunted house for sale, while 38 percent would not. Of the respondents that would consider purchasing a haunted home, 12 percent reported that they would pay full market value or over for a haunted house; 34 percent shared that they would purchase a haunted home if it was discounted 1 to 30 percent; 22 percent indicated that they would purchase a haunted home if it was discounted 31 to 50 percent; and 19 percent revealed that they would purchase a haunted home if it was discounted 51 percent or more.

However, of the respondents that would contemplate purchasing a haunted home, the following spooky occurrences would stop them from buying a home:

• 75 percent would be scared off by levitating objects from purchasing a home
• 63 percent would be deterred by objects being moved from where they were placed
• 63 percent would be dissuaded by ghost sightings
• 61 percent would be discouraged by supernatural sensations
• 61 percent would be scared off by flickering lights/appliances
• 60 percent would pass on a home with strange noises (footsteps, doors slamming)
• 34 percent would be deterred by warm or cold spots.

In terms of the most popular "warning signs" a home could be haunted, 61 percent of respondents thought a cemetery on the property may be an indication; 50 percent shared that homes over 100 years old could be haunted; 45 percent thought quick transitions in owners might be a sign; 45 percent believe that an unexplainable low price on the home is alarming; and 43 percent felt that homes in close proximity to a battlefield may be haunted.

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

How long to own a home?

Most people don't buy or sell a home very often. 
 

In fact, a recent National Association of Realtors® study found the median length of time that people who sold a home in 2012 had owned that residence was nine years, two years longer than the proverbial seven-year time frame. 

What's more, recent buyers had even longer time horizons in mind: first-time purchasers expected to own their newly bought home a median of 10 years. For repeat buyers, the median was 15 years. 
 

Sure, many people move more frequently, often due to the birth of a child, marriage or divorce, job loss or relocation, retirement, someone passing away, or other major life event. Yet there's still no doubt that a move is pretty hard on anyone… and avoided if possible.

How long have you owned your home in average?

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Grand Opening at the San Antonio shopping center

It has been a while since I wrote a note about the San Antonio shopping center, and the transformations happening there. 
Since then a new Safeway opened, apartment buildings opened, a Starbucks and a few other well known franchises.  Tomorrow Saturday there is an event worth mentioning here for those who live close by, and especially dog lovers:
the Grand Opening of the Village Green Park and Dog Park.  Tomorrow Saturday October 19th, 10:30 to 3 pm.

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

Housing shortage in the Bay Area .. Facebook takes note.

Facebook to Build Apartments for Employees

A mockup of a new housing complex in Menlo Park for Facebook employees has been released. The project will cost $120 million and will create 394 units. The entire complex will be 630,000 square-feet.

Along with apartments, the area will have shops, a sports bar, a doggy day care, as well as an outdoor community pool. Designed primarily to house Facebook employees, the complex will be within walking distance or a five-minute bike ride from the corporate campus.

The majority of units will only be available to Facebook employees and sold at market rate. Fifteen units will be open to non-Facebook employees who are low-income. Construction begins this month and is expected to be completed in 24 months.

Source: Silicon Valley Association of Realtors.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

Micro apartments...

Micro apartments. In some major metropolitan areas, people are living large in smaller spaces.

So-called micro apartments—which are often less than 200 square feet—are becoming popular in San Francisco, New York, Seattle, Boston, Providence, R.I., and Portland, Ore., reports CNN Money (by Les Christie).
But it’s not only those just-out-of-college grads flocking to these tiny units. In some “micro buildings,” the average tenant is 33 years old and makes less than $35,000 a year, according to Reuters. 

 

On a separate (real estate) note, not quite the same size, you can have a look at what’s inside the ultimateman cave … (by Anastasia Anashkina @CNNMoney)  - Ok, this is not your typical home. But I know many who are going to dream.

Thanks for dreaming! - huh... reading!

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations