Real Estate Silicon Valley - Price Seasonality

Here is an update on my regular graphs on the seasonality of prices in the Valley.  This graph shows the peaks in the County of Santa Clara (mostly = the Silicon Valley) which includes among other big city names: Santa Clara, San Jose, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Palo Alto, - all big locations for the high tech industry.

As expected, the months of Feb to May show the highest average prices every year, followed by a (small) dip in summer, and a small bump in September-October, and again another slow-down in Nov.-Dec..   As in previous blogs, I'd like to point out that all of this is statistical, and does not necessarily mean that a given property will sell for more or less depending on the month.  It does mean that over large numbers of sales, the trend exists.
The sales prices for a given month show the following month, as transactions usually take about 3-4 weeks to close.


Click on the picture to see it full size.

Thank you for reading, and as always, if you like the post, do share it ;-)

Francis

Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates   (slight recent uptick)
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Seasonality of real estate sales prices - Silicon Valley

To piggy-back on one of my earlier blogs on the evolution of prices in the Silicon Valley, here is an updated graph showing the median price of a residential piece of property in the County of Santa Clara, between a bit before Jan 1, 2015, and right now: July of 2017.





















Click on the graph to see it larger.

The green arrows point to a seasonal low in Aug./ September (corresponding to August sales) and a movement downwards in january, which corresponds to sales in November and December.
As mentioned in my previous blog, it does not mean necessarily that the same property will sell for less in December than in January, but it does mean that more properties of a lower value sold in November / December than in January.  One can see that in February the median price starts going higher (these are the January sales).

Will the same property sell for less during those times?  It is open to question, but my experience is that a prime piece of real estate, with good location, very good condition etc... will sell for about the same price.  By experience, if a property is not top notch, it may suffer somewhat from the timing.   Otherwise, these ups and downs relate to the fact that:
- many people are away during the months of July and August,
- many people wait for right after Labor Day to put a property on the market (feeling that fewer people will be in the market to buy a home, because away on vacation),
- fewer people are looking to buy in November and December because of the holidays and the weather.
- statistically, more homes go on the market during those slower times because they have to.  This can  also explain why the sales price is lower.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
Check your Home Value
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Median Sales Price - Santa Clara Cnty - did not let up.

Piggy-backing on my September blog looking at the monthly median prices in the County of Santa Clara, I'd like to share what happened next.

At the time, I was speculating that prices may let up a bit, as is usually the case at the end of any given year.  Buyers looking during the last few months of the year could expect a break and have less competition.

My experience from the trenches, reflected in the updated graph below, is that there were a little fewer offerors on homes for sale, but prices certainly did not go down. The competition remained quite strong.  Overall prices stayed at the same level, at the minimum, and I mostly saw an increase in home values, especially in the entry-level category.

Often seen in the past 3 months were:
- Houses offered at a certain price, and if it did not sell for way over, their asking price changed upward,
- offers being shopped around, in some cases what felt like excessively,
- lower cash offers sometimes selected over higher offers needing a loan - (can make sense of course...),
- some of the latter cash contracts being cancelled  right before close of escrow - setting the clock back to zero on the sales process, and triggering plenty of legal questions marks for all.

Be sure to work with an experienced professional if you are thinking of selling, or buying a place in this tense environment.  It is sometimes hard to make sense of it and to navigate a prudent, legally safe line.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist

Detailed, local trends etc...

Current mortgage rates

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

California real estate: to keep in perspective...

To keep in perspective:

- California's largest gain in annual median price was in 1977: it went up 28.1% from 1976.

- California median price was $3,527 in 1940, and it was $447,010 in 2014.

- The largest decline in annual median price was in 2008: it dropped 37.8% from 2007.

- Between 1968 and 2014, the median price for single family homes has increased at an annual rate of 6.6%.
Source: California Association of Realtors.

Local Inventory:
In the County of Santa Clara, the number of houses and condominiums on the market went up to 7000-7500 in 2008.
By contrast, it was around 700 to 800 in the first few months of 2015.
This is an essential element of the real estate market locally, and the fact that it is currently (as of the last week of September) at around 1680 is also important: it is a relatively better time to look at buying a property than at the beginning of the year.  The inventory has been steadily increasing.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

 

Silicon Valley real estate

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
A noteworthy local non-profit event:  Second Harvest Food Bank

Median Sales Price - Santa Clara County - Good time to buy now?

Median sales price in Santa Clara County: is it a good time to buy now?

The time is about right now for an update on this fairly important matter, especially for buyers who have been in the market to buy for a while, or are thinking of making a move in the near future.
My last post on the subject, "the ratio of sales price over list price", and last year's post in September "the evolution of average prices" provide some perspective on this (as well as an article last week end in the SF Chronicle, BTW).

Below is the graph showing the monthly change in median price for all homes (houses and condos) sold in the County of Santa Clara, since the beginning of last year (2014).  On this graph we see the median price, and not the average price.  "Median Price" means this: the same number of homes sold over that price, as the number that sold under that price. But one can see that either way, the trend is similar to the one that the average price followed last year.

All in all, it means that it is statistically a better time to buy during the last months of the year than during the first six months of the year, when prices go up - because more people are looking, and need to buy during those months, to be settled in for the next school year.  Probably it also means that fewer people are looking to buy as we get closer to the winter months, and the Holidays.  It can also mean that the homes that sell during that time are in general less expensive than during the first 6 months (smaller homes may be?).  It is not a definitive call that a house will be bought for less money all things considered, but it certainly is worth keeping in mind the seasonal trend.

One last remark on the subject: the trends in years past are a lot more pronounced.  In the past 2 years, or so, the market is such a sellers' market that the slowdown in the market is just mild towards the end of the year.  One should remember that it is still very much a sellers' market, and that there continues to be a strong competition among buyers for the nicest homes.  But my experience has been that buyers are less stressed when buying a house closer to the end of the year.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Local real estate - some perspective.

Here is a simple summary of what real estate did lately, and in the past few years, in the Counties of the Bay Area of San Francisco.  Coming directly from the MLS (Multiple Listing Service):

Francis Rolland

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

Price increase in the Silicon Valley

To piggy up on my last blog (is the market slowing down?) here is the evolution of sales prices of houses and CID's (common interest development = condos and townhouses).

These graphs that I just pulled show the amount of increase in average prices in a year and a half, and illustrate how indeed this is a factor in a possible slow-down of the activity.

They also show something that is unusual: prices did not really go down a lot at the end of 2012.  On previous studies I showed how prices really adjusted towards the end of the year, in 2011 and 2010.  But the market stayed strong at the end of 2012.

Finally these graphs show that indeed prices are (somewhat) flattening at this point, at least in the case of the County of Santa Clara.

 

 

If you have any area of interest, very local or at the City level, let me know and I will publish it for you.

 

Thanks for reading, as always!,

Francis

 

Silicon Valley real estate

Local market trends
Current Mortgage rates

Non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

Tax break disappears as housing values rise

As property values have been going up sharply in the Silicon Valley, so are the assessors' values of our houses, throughout the area. We can expect therefore to pay more in property taxes, come November and December of 2013.

During the past 4 years I have prepared updated market analysis for several of my clients, in order to justify a lower value to be sent to the tax assessor's office. The goal of course was to pay a lot less in property tax, and I am glad to have been incidental to huge tax reductions in several instances. It is very unlikely that this is going to be possible going forward, as for most of the local area values have gone back to the highs of 2007, and sometimes higher yet. There are some small pockets in the County which would still be lower but there are fewer and fewer of them.

Nonetheless, if you feel that you are being assessed too much, do not hesitate to call on me to double check on it!

An article on the subject was recently published in the Mercury News, stating that "tens of thousands of homeowners will see their property taxes go up significantly this year as rising home values

restore some or all of their homes’ lost equity".

Do you feel you are being assessed unfairly this year? Let me know.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Local real estate
updated loan rates   Rates are up mostly, except for the 1-yr adjustable
Week ending 6/6/2013 (Source: Freddie Mac)
30-yr. fixed: 3.91% fees/points: 0.7%
15-yr. fixed: 3.03% fees/points: 0.7%
1-yr. adjustable: 2.58% Fees/points: 0.4%

Santa Clara Cty Property Assessment up 3.25%...

I don't know if you have experienced the same thing, but my property value went up according to the County assessor's office - the notice of my property's assessed value that I just received in the mail.  This is not a surprise as we have experienced so many multiple offers since the end of last year, but sometimes reality is not completely reflected in the County's figures, and when the market goes down, one feels the need to fight what seems to be an assessed value that is too high.

In the past few years, I have helped several clients prove to the County assessor's office that their value was overinflated, by providing "comparables" from the MLS data, for similar properties sold that year.

However, when the market goes up, it is a lot more difficult to go about this procedure.

As evidenced by this June 2012 article of the Business Journal , the County is richer now, and things are looking up, at least for the County's coffers ...
My evaluation has gone up by about 2%.  How much did yours go up?

Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate

Local market trends

useful links

A noteworthy web site: junk mail reducer: Catalog Choice

Time to appeal that tax bill?

Is it time to appeal your tax bill?

It is that time of the year again when the Tax Assessor's Office of the County of Santa Clara sends to all homeowners a notice of the assessed value of their property.

If you think it is too high for your home (it always seems too high doesn't it, since you pay a yearly percentage of the assessed value) you have between July 2 and September 15 to file a review, or an appeal - depending on when you want to contest it.  The specific rules, and the specific dates to check for are on this page of the Santa Clara County official web site.

Where I can help is by providing you with MLS sales data that happened around the turn of the year of assessment.  This is information that you can send to the County in support of your request, along with any other data you may have (that would not be in the Realtors' MLS for instance).

One thing to remember though, as they point out on the web site - and I quote: "IMPORTANT NOTE: It is very important to understand that filing an assessment appeal does not relieve an owner of the responsibility for paying any outstanding tax bill no matter how unfair the owner may feel a bill might be."
.. no surprise there I guess :-\

For the County of San Mateo, the dates when one can appeal the assessed home value are different.  Details can be found on this page: County of San Mateo Treasurer Tax Collector.

Let me know, as always, how I can help!
Francis

Silicon Valley Realtor
Local Real Estate resources

A link worthy of interest: http://www.ourbrothershome.org/