Effect of interest rates on affordability...

December 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook
Freddie Mac released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December showing that housing affordability is being challenged as the year comes to an end.

Highlights from the Freddie Mac Study show that:

• At a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage that prevailed in the third quarter of 2013, more than 70 percent of the country remained affordable. All of the North Central region remained affordable, while just 36 percent of the West remained affordable.
• At a 5 percent rate (and no change in prices/income) approximately 63 percent of the country would be affordable, at 6 percent mortgage rates 55 percent would be affordable, and at 7 percent mortgage rates only 35 percent of the country would be affordable.
• On the plus side, existing homeowners' housing payment-to-income ratio has fallen to an average of 7.9 percent, its lowest level since 1980, a positive sign for sustainable homeownership.

See an interactive map of housing affordability, depending on interest rates.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Great local Nonprofit in the Valley:  Community Services Agency.

New Homes Sales vs Interest Rates - opposite direction...

The rise in interest rates may be a challenge for the real estate market in 2014, (although I have to point out: this is nationwide):

• During 2013, increases in mortgage rates corresponded with declines in home buying, and in light of shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus effort, the trend is expected to continue.

• When the Fed first announced it would consider scaling back its bond-buying program, mortgage interest rates spiked in May. As a result, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales dropped by 4 percent from the prior month.
• In contrast, mortgage rates dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point during October just as new home sales surged 18 percent.
• In mid-December, the Fed announced that it will begin tapering its asset purchase program, but the Fed is only reducing its monthly buys of mortgage securities and Treasuries by just $10 billion.

-  If mortgage interest rates increase a little, some analysts have stressed that any such rate increases will see the recovery slow rather than reverse.

• The interest rate on U.S. Treasury notes is also increasing, which could signal higher interest rates ahead because it is used as a reference point for the cost of borrowed money for U.S. consumers and businesses.

See the corresponding graphs on this page of the Wall Street Journal.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

To keep in perspective: Sales Price Graphs 2012-2013

To piggy back on my last blog, let's look at values in our part of the Bay Area of San Francisco (Silicon Valley).

To keep some perspective on the market in our counties, let's look at the graphs (past 2 years) of the average sales price for residential housing (houses, and PUD's combined, which include all townhouses and condominiums),
in the County of Santa Clara first:

(click on the graph to enlarge)

 For this County, the ratio of the Sales Price to the List Price follows the curve below, which shows that from March to May of 2013, the market was the most heated:

 

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Looking at the County of San Mateo, for the same statistics:

 ... and the ratio of Sales Price to List Price, which shows that in that County the market remained even more heated and unbalanced than in the County of Santa Clara, for the 2nd half of 2013.

 

 A few things to note: 

- another thing to remember when looking for a home in both Counties is that as an average, prices are higher in San Mateo County than in Santa Clara County;

- the overbidding was just starting to warm up in 2012;

- finally, something that is noticeable from the stats is that prices did not go down much at the end of each year, from the highs of the middle of the year.  This is somewhat of a new phenomenon that I had mentioned in an earlier blog (last year in November).

 

Interested in local statistics for your own neighborhood, and the value of your assets?  Just let me know, I'll be glad to study it.

 

Thanks for reading!

Francis

 

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

To keep in perspective: California families struggle...

To keep things in perspective, which is always nice when you live in the Bay Area of San Francisco, I thought this article was worth reading.


According to the California Budget Project, a nonpartisan research group, many California families are struggling from paycheck to paycheck, and expensive housing, high childcare costs and rising healthcare expenses are the main factors.
Nearly one-third of households in the state spent at least half their income on rent.
Full article from the LA times, which also includes links to the richest and poorest cities in the US.  Source: LA Times - by Shan Li.

Happy New Year! and thank you for reading,
Francis
 
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Negative Equity in the US

Negative Equity in the US.

CoreLogic, a California based research firm, reported that as of the 3^rd quarter of 2013, the number of properties with a mortgage in the US is about 42,6 million.  About 6.4 million – or 13% – still have a negative equity. 

 

CoreLogic indicates that, of those 42.6 million properties with positive equity, 10 million have less than 20% equity, leaving them in a situation where it’s still hard to refinance due to underwriting constraints.

 

"Fewer than 7 million homeowners are underwater, with a total mortgage debt of $1.6 trillion," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Negative equity will decline even further in the coming quarters as the housing market continues to improve."

 

The state of Nevada had the highest percentage of mortgage properties in negative equity at 32.2%, followed by Florida (28.8%), Arizona (22.5%), Ohio (18%) and Georgia (17.8%).

HousingWire.com article by KerriAnn Panchuk

 PS: let’s remember that many transactions are cash: According to this very nice RealtyTrac study, all-cash purchases nationwide accounted for 40 percent of all sales of residential property in July.

 

Thanks for reading, and may you have an excellent Holiday Season!

Francis Rolland
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

Automated valuation systems in real estate

Countless are the times when clients tell me that they believe the value of their home is “X” because Zillow or another automated valuation system on the internet said so. 

Automated home value estimates have been a popular tool for real estate search websites, and while these tools may satisfy clients’ needs for quick information, in many cases the information they provide is inaccurate.  Although many agents and brokers are aware of the limitations of these models, many consumers are not, and improper use of these tools can encourage mistakes.

Automated valuation models (AVM) are designed to predict a home’s price based on comparing it with similar properties in the area. They do this using county property record data from thousands of offices around the country, comparing several attributes such as square footage, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and other property features. This data cannot take into consideration the specifics of the neighborhood or the details of the properties (lot size, improvements, quality of the maintenance…).  It is my experience that while they can be a good first indication, and sometimes accurate, they miss the mark in roughly 30% to 40% of cases.  Where all homes are similar, like in a condominium complex or a given tract of identical homes, they may be quite accurate.  In places where each home is unique, in nature or in location, they can be quite off (think: Los Altos Hills, or Palo Alto to cite a few). 

As always with statistical data, a percentage of the evaluations will be accurate – but be careful it is not by mistake.  Also, figures do not know the market conditions, which can only be understood by a professional dealing with local sales 24/7.  I do not mean to be critical, but I just want to remind clients that these valuations should just be a first indication, not the final opinion of value.  Another way to look at it is, as we like to say in the business, "home valuation is not an exact science".

Read more details and the fullRE Insider interview.

Thanks for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Mars, Venus, and Real Estate...

As a full time agent, spending most of my time "in the trenches" I found this Real Estate News Release by Prudential quite refreshing and greatly informative, as it deals with people, attitudes, personal reactions and ... genders.  I had to look twice and - although one has to be careful with generalizations -  found some interesting trends that are not always apparent when you are buried in the details and in the heat of the action.  Also, I found their infographic illustration of their findings quite interesting.

Here is the Prudential Real Estate News Release I am referring to:

  View of Homeownership Differ by Gender
A new survey by Prudential Real Estate indicates that men and women don’t see eye to eye when it comes to homeownership and the responsibilities related to homebuying and selling.

Men claim to be more responsible for financial aspects

while women assume the lead for neighborhood research and planning portions of the process. While 39 percent of men in partnerships claim researching banks and securing a mortgage are completely their responsibility, 42 percent of women in partnerships indicated it is their sole

responsibility to manage appointments, and 34 percent take the lead in researching neighborhoods.

Women also seem to enjoy the process of purchasing a home more so than men. A full 87 percent of women said they enjoy looking at homes compared with 77 percent of men. Moreover, feelings associated with homeownership are more pronounced in women than in men. When asked about the reasons why homeownership is “very important,” more women associated it with a sense of pride or accomplishment (16 percent higher than men) and independence (11 percent higher). For men, “control over living space” and “more space for my family” were most important.  -- Complete News Release.

 

One last thought: different personalities will attract different people, and therefore each of us will have a different experience and perception of people's reactions.

What is your own experience?

Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

2013 Cal. Annual Housing Market Survey

The Annual Housing Market Surveys conducted by the California Association of Realtors is always full of interesting tidbits, some of them not so small in fact.  All these facts, figures, percentages are fascinating if you like figures. 
-- If you are not so much interested in the statistics of the California real estate market, I would skip this blog.
If on the other hand you are curious about it, with a macro vision of the market, it yields some interesting thoughts and points.  Here it is:

C.A.R. Releases “2013 Annual Housing Market Survey”

Nearly half (49.5 percent) of all homes sold in 2013 were sold above asking price, nearly twice the share in 2012 (25.9 percent) and triple the share in 2011 (16.6 percent).  The 2013 figure was more than twice the long-run average of 18 percent during the past 20 years.  For homes that sold above the list price in 2013, the median premium paid over the list price was 4.8 percent, unchanged from 2012.  Note: in Palo Alto, the average ratio of Sales price over List price is 111.7%.

For the third consecutive year, an increasing number of home sellers – nearly half – planned on purchasing another home in the future.

The shortage of housing supply intensified further this year, leading to heightened market competition and more multiple offers, with more than seven of 10 home sales (72 percent) receiving multiple offers in 2013, up from 57 percent in 2012.  The 2013 figure was the highest in at least the past 15 years, with each home receiving an average of 5.7 offers, up from 4.2 offers in 2012 and 3.5 offers in 2011.  Note: in Palo Alto and Los Altos, 10 to 20 offers are fairly common.   

The distressed market continued to be the most competitive segment of the market, with more than 9 in 10 (91 percent) real estate-owned (REO) properties attracting multiple offers, an increase from 71 percent in 2012. The short sale market was less intense than the REO market, but still 3/4 of all sales received more than one offer, a jump from 66 percent in 2012.  There is no "deal" in the local real estate market...
Close to seven of 10 equity sales received multiple offers in 2013, a surge from 51 percent in 2012.
More information on the CAR website.

Francis
Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView