Home prices going forward in the US... & Bay Area

US house prices are going to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay: Reuters poll   
Source: CNBC Article

An acute shortage of affordable homes in the United States will continue over the coming year, according to a majority of property market analysts polled by Reuters, driving prices up faster than inflation and wage growth.

The latest poll of nearly 45 analysts taken May 16-June 5 showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 cities is expected to gain a further 5.7 percent this year.
That compared to predictions for average earnings growth of 2.8 percent and inflation of 2.5 percent 2018, according to a separate Reuters poll of economists.

U.S. house prices are then forecast to rise 4.3 percent next year and 3.6 percent in 2020.

A further breakdown of the April data showed the inventory of existing homes had declined for 35 straight months on an annual basis while the median house price was up for a 74th consecutive month.

About 80 percent of nearly 40 analysts who answered an extra question said the already tight supply of affordable homes in the United States will either stay the same or fall over the next 12 months.

In the Bay Area, things are not better.  The ratio of home completions to job growth is still very small, which will keep pressure on home prices here too:

.. while according to this article from the Mercury News, the nation's top three most expensive places for renters are here in the Bay Area...

Thank you for reading,

Francis
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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

New Surprising Buyers Demographics

New Surprising Buyers Demographics:

According to a new report by Veritas Urbis Economics, the landscape of buyers is changing in surprising ways as compared to  35 years ago.

According to this Housing Wire article by Kelsey Ramirez:
- the share of women as buyers has increased from 18.9% in 1981 to 46.4% in 2017,
- single women homebuyers make up 18.9% of all buyers, when it was just 9.1% in 1981,
- the share of households over 55 increased to 27.8% in 2017 (it was 16.1% in 1981),
- homebuyers under 35 made up 52% of all buyers in 1981, they are now under 34%.

How does it play out in the Bay Area of San Francisco, the Silicon Valley?
I don't think we fall within those stats very well when it comes to age.  In my (limited) experience, in the local market, there are quite a few younger households among the buyers, and as far as households over 55, they make up a lot of the sellers, not buyers: as people age, they are likely to sell their home at some point, and in that case they most often leave the area.  Typically this demographic segment does not buy in the Valley as prices and property taxes are too high for the retired population.  Although we do have a portion of the elderly buyers who are moving down, after selling a property that has become too large or far away for them.

Thank you for reading,

Francis

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Who is Buying Homes, Nationwide?

Yes indeed, who is buying homes nowadays in the U.S.?
This little graph summarizes well some interesting statistics, like for instance the fact that more single women buy a place than young single men, but still 65% of all buyers were married couples.
With regards to women buying a home alone, this article (for the Realtor Magazine) also indicates that in some areas home builders design their homes with women in mind: in some of their developments, more than 50% of buyers are single women.

Thank you for reading,
and let me know if I can help you with any real estate questions.

Best regards,
Francis


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The Effect of Interest Rates Increase

What happens to your mortgage payments when interest rates change?

For all buyers trying to get in contract right now, the same question is on everyone's mind: what are interest rates today, and how much is my loan payment going to be after my offer is accepted?

This informational slide below, compliments of the California Association of Realtors, gives us a pretty good idea on the impact of any change in the rates:

Also, here is a good link for current mortgage rates, to keep abreast of interest rates in general.

Tip: unless you are a gambler, it is usually a good idea to lock the rate the moment you are in contract to purchase a home.
Should 30-yr fixed rates increase too much on you, and you cannot qualify for the same amount any longer, you may have to consider a loan that would be fixed for a few years, and which then becomes adjustable.  These are the "3-yr, or 5-yr, or 7-yr fixed then adjustable" loans.  The starting rate, on which you are qualified by the lender, is lower, and that in turn allows you to qualify for a larger loan amount.  Ask your lender to advise you on the matter.

Let me know if I can help with any of your real estate questions!

Thank you for reading!
Francis

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Silicon Valley real estate specialist

Detailed, local trends etc...

A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Disclosures Sellers Don't Have to Make...

Do you have to disclose that a house is haunted?

Since disclosures are one of the most important topics to address for sellers who sell their home, this is a subject certainly worth talking about.  A good rule of thumb is typically: if you wonder if you have to disclose something about your property, usually the answer is a resounding "YES".

With this in mind, I found this article from the Law Offices of Peter Brewer most interesting.  It details a few (rare) items that sellers do not have to disclose.
Arguably, the fact that one does not have to disclose does not necessarily mean they should not disclose, and in all cases it is always advisable to ask a qualified California Licensed Real Estate Attorney whether to disclose a specific item if you really are wondering about it - if you sell in California.

Although Realtors cannot advise on legal matters, they will usually tell you that it is best to disclose if you are in doubt (with a few exceptions) - and this is where the above article, written by attorneys, comes in as most interesting.

Most real estate lawsuits stem from sellers' or agents' disclosures or I should say: "lack of disclosures".

Marketing your property is certainly a very important aspect of selling a property, but working on preparing good disclosures when you sell your home is in my opinion by far the most important thing to do, and the wrong guidance on this matter could cost you a lot. I think it is the most important criterion in choosing your Realtor to sell your California property.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

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Price Correlation - SF Bay Area - Nasdaq

Interesting correlation between the average sales price in the San Francisco Bay Area, and the Nasdaq over the past 20 years or so.

This graph is compliment of our Coldwell Banker analysts, and shows the average sales price for Coldwell Banker properties only, not ALL of the sales of properties on the market.

Still, it shows how heavily our local market, around San Francisco, is leaning on the high-tech heavy Nasdaq.

Click on the graph to see larger.

Thanks for reading!
Francis

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More Buyers Gamble with Sight-Unseen Offers

I was really surprised to read this article in the Realtor Magazine (National Association of Realtors) about the number of people making offers without seeing the property first.
The source of the article is a survey of more than 1,500 home purchasers by the real estate company Redfin.

The figures are, I think, somewhat staggering:
in June of 2016, 19% of purchasers made an offer sight-unseen,
in May of 2017, it was 33%, and
in November/December of 2017, it was up to 35%.

It has happened to me to have a client make a purchase "long distance", so I understand the circumstances under which it can happen, but this number still surprises me.  I guess with the market going up so much, and properties selling so fast (especially in the Silicon Valley), one can see how some home buyers may have to cut some corners.

You can click on these links for more details on the Realtor.org article, and the original article on the Redfin web site.

Nationwide, US home prices are up 6.7% year-over-year in February.   

Thanks for reading!
Francis

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The Difference Between "Deed" and "Title"

What is the difference between a “Deed” and “title” to a property?

From our specialists at Cornerstone Title, the Title Insurance branch of Coldwell Banker, here are some pointers for buyers and real estate owners in California. (adapted from an article by Audrey Ference on Realtor.com).

A deed is a legal document used to confirm or convey the ownership rights to real property. It must be a physical document signed by the seller/ grantor.

Title, however, is a legal way of saying you have ownership of real property. Title is not a document, but a concept that says you have the rights to that property.

So when you buy a property, you will receive the deed, a document that proves you own it. That deed is an official document that shows that title to the real property has been conveyed to you as the grantee.

How to get the deed and take title of a property?

To get the deed and "take title," or legally own the property, your title company will perform a title search. This ensures that the seller has the legal right to transfer ownership of the property to you, and that there are no liens against it. If everything is clear, then at closing the seller will transfer the title to you, and you become the legal owner of the property.

In California, the title company will ensure the deed is recorded at the county recorder’s office or courthouse, depending on where you live. You'll generally get a notification a few weeks after closing escrow, that your deed has been recorded. At that point, you have the deed and title to the real estate and the property is all yours.

What is title insurance?

Even with all of the due diligence a title company does before closing, there can be rare instances when title problems can pop up later (e.g., missed liens and other legal issues that can be very costly to resolve). To protect against any financial loss, two types of title insurance exist: owner's title insurance and lender's title insurance.

Unlike other types of insurance that protect the policyholder from events that may happen in the future, an owner’s title policy protects the buyer from events that have happened in the past that may jeopardize your financial interest, such as title defects, fraud, and unpaid liens against the property, or claims that someone else is the real, legal property owner.  On the other hand, when you secure a mortgage, your lender or bank will require that you purchase lender's title insurance to protect the lender in case any title problems arise. Lender's title insurance protects the lender's interest in your property until the loan has been paid off.
Thank you for reading!

Francis   

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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

The Property Tax Fairness Initiative

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) is embarking on an historic effort to increase homeownership opportunities. C.A.R. is going to qualify an initiative - the Property Tax Fairness Initiative - for the November 2018 ballot which will allow senior homeowners (55 years of age and older) among others to keep all or most of their Proposition 13 property tax savings when they move.

I think this is important, because seniors, who are often on a fixed income, fear they will not be able to afford a big property tax increase if they sell their existing home and buy another one, discouraging them from ever moving. As a result of this “moving penalty” almost three-quarters of homeowners 55 and older haven’t moved since 2000. C.A.R.’s portability initiative would allow senior homeowners to transfer their property tax base from their current residence to a replacement residence located anywhere in California.

The measure, if approved by voters, will let thousands of seniors, currently “locked into” their homes by low property tax rates purchase a home that will better suit their needs while expanding the housing inventory for young families seeking to buy a home.  According to the California Legislative Analyst's Office, tens of thousands additional homeownership opportunities will occur annually.

The initiative would remove the “moving penalty” for seniors 55 and older, and also for the disabled and victims of natural disasters, allowing them to carry their current Proposition 13-protected property tax assessment level to another home of any price, anywhere in the state, any number of times.

Let me know if you are interested in more information on this subject or if you would like to sign a petition to place this initiative on the November ballot.

Thank you for reading!

Francis

My Home Valuation tool
Detailed, local trends etc...
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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View.

Tiny Homes in the Bay Area?

I like to read about the progress of the "Tiny Homes" movement in the Bay Area.  It is such a fascinating concept to allow more people to have a home, even if it is a small one, since the alternative for many is often to have none at all.

There have been several newspaper articles written recently on the subject as the concept applies to the homeless population of San Jose.  This is a movement that tries to mitigate the scarcity of land in this part of the Country and allow more people to have a home, albeit a small one, instead of living on the streets.

The latest articles I read were in the San Jose Mercury News by Barbara Marshman, recounting the back and forth in the movement at the level of the San Jose City Council.  Many forces at are work here, among them a concern and push back from local residents, afraid of the proximity of new neighbors living in this kind of housing arrangement, but also a quest to find a solution to the homeless situation in the County.  A follow up article on 12/13/17 by Ramona Giwargis reports that the City Council voted 9-2 to build one tiny home village of 40 units.
Another push back is from people advocating that faster results can be had for the benefit of homeless residents, with the money allocated to the project, in the form of a program to lease existing apartments (to house some of the homeless people).

Even if it is not for the homeless population, Tiny Homes can be such an attractive concept for reducing one's carbon footprint and simplifying one's life, or for vacationing.  I believe there is a lot of future for this concept in an environment like the Bay Area where there is so little land to build new housing.  With some zoning changes, I can see that whole developments could be built for tiny homes: cheaper homes to buy, with smaller land, allowing home ownership to a whole range of population currently coping with the cost of housing, with the possibility to create interesting forms of new residential neighborhood arrangements.  It is very easy to imagine that smaller homes can present various advantages to several subsets of the population.

More information can be found on several web sites, among which: Tumbleweed Tiny Houses, Architecture Art Design, and for the Bay Area, Delta Bay Tiny Houses, claiming to be the only Tiny House Community in Northern California.

Thankyou for reading.
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
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LASD to expand? - And create a new school close to the San Antonio Center?

Will LASD be successful in its bid to create a new school at the site of the old Old Mill shopping center?  The location is right next to the Parc Crossings complex and a stone's throw to the Old Mill complex of homes.

This 12/12/17 article from Kevin Forestieri of the Mountain View Voice goes into the complexities of the proposition, some historical perspective and future possibilities that it opens.  The comments below give an idea of how controversial the various use choices for the location will be (should the project come to fruition).

Thanks for reading,

Francis

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College Debt is Postponing Homeownership

This is not new news, and I already wrote about this earlier on this blog, but it is worth noting it again: college debt is a factor in postponing homeownership and a lot of other life decisions.

I just read this article from RISMedia, written by Suzanne De Vita (online news editor) which reiterates with fresh figures this pressing problem facing our youngest generation.  The National Association of Realtors is actively supporting efforts to find solutions and educate students as they take on new debt.  See the following NAR report on student debt.  As a result a majority of millenials are postponing several significant aspects of their life, such as marriage, starting a family, or starting any retirement savings.

Do you think getting a loan for your education should be more expensive than getting a loan for a car or a house?

Thank you for reading,
Francis

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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Bay Area Real Estate Continues to Demand Top-Dollar

Market Watch | Bay Area Real Estate Continues to Demand Top-Dollar

November 13, 2017    Coldwell Banker  Market News  by Marketing Department

In September, the Bay Area maintained its position as California’s most in-demand region for real estate. According to the September California Association of REALTORS^® report, six of nine Bay Area counties had less than three months’ supply of inventory, and of the six – two had less than a two months’ supply. The report indicated that San Mateo took the No. 1 spot with the highest price per square foot at $883/sq. ft., followed by San Francisco ($875/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara ($687/sq. ft.). Read more about what’s happening from our Silicon Valley offices.

SF Peninsula – Half Moon Bay reported an all-time low in inventory supply. Although this makes the housing market tough for prospective buyers, many were still encouraged by low interest rates. Palo Alto downtown also saw low inventory that led to multiple offers on most, if not all properties.
Redwood City experienced a healthy demand and saw many sales exceeding asking prices. One instance was an uninhabitable house in southern San Francisco that listed for $550,000 and received 29 offers, selling well above the listing price. The luxury market remained active, although properties did not move as quickly.
San Mateo saw an increase in both inventory and prices. The luxury market was active, but slower with properties priced above $2.5 million. 

Silicon Valley 
Cupertino saw an active market, at times with more pending sales than active listings.  Buyers are encouraged to start house hunting as Silicon Valley is a uniquely strong region with exceptional demand. The luxury market remains active with several sales exceeding $6 million.
Gilroy and Morgan Hill saw low inventory and over 65 percent of the 54 available homes sold for over $1 million. Entry-level homes can be challenging to find, although the average list price of Gilroy is slightly lower. Overall, the area remains a sellers’ market with multiple offers and homes selling for above asking.
Los Altos experienced a continued sellers’ market with low inventory and multiple offers on most listings. The average days-on-market remained low, ranging from 13 days in Sunnyvale to 35 in Los Altos Hills. Sellers need to ensure their homes are priced and primed for a competitive sale. And buyers must be prepared with financing and a knowledgeable, trusted agent to represent their best interests. Buyers must also be aggressive as the market is highly competitive and sellers are more responsive to solid offers. The luxury market priced above
$4.5 million in Los Altos is steady and flat. On average, time on market is 44 days. Inventory is steadily increasing and the number of sales in the high-end market is down slightly.
Los Gatos saw a sustained sellers’ market, and luxury activity remains strong and active.
San Jose saw inventory at a record low. That coupled with low interest rates has created an increasingly competitive market for buyers. Even with the strong demand, sellers are encouraged to price their home competitively – at or slightly below market price – to avoid pushback from buyers. Because of the current competitive landscape, buyers should be ready to make an offer quickly because hesitation may cost them a great opportunity.
Saratoga saw multiple offers on most of its listings and a continued sellers’ market.  Buyers who are ready to make a move should have all financing in order. The high-end luxury market experienced an increase in listings with 24 properties for sale in September, a 9.1 percent increase from August 2017, and a 71.4 percent increase from September 2016.

Any questions about your real estate situation? Let me know!
Thanks for reading!

Francis Rolland

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Real Estate Ownership: how to hold title to your real estate

The question of how to hold title to your property comes up every time as you get ready to finalize the process of buying a home, "sign off", and tell the escrow/title company how to register that new home that you purchase.
This is not something that a Realtor can advise you on (nor the escrow officer BTW), because it is definitely a legal matter, and it does also have tax implications.  The various ways to hold title can be in good part summarized as indicated below:

-  Sole ownership –In this scenario, property is owned entirely by one person, who can do whatever he or she wishes with it without permission from another party. If the sole owner dies without a will, the property passes according to the state law where it is located. In some cases, the court that has jurisdiction will appoint an executor to oversee disposition of the estate.
-  Joint tenancy – As joint tenants, each person who has a share of ownership owns an equal share of the property. If one owner dies, that share passes automatically to the remaining owner(s).
-  Tenants in Common – In this case, a property is owned by two or more people at the same time, but the proportionate interests and right to possess and enjoy the property need not be equal. The owners can sell their share of the property if they wish and, upon death, the decedent’s interest passes to his/her heirs who then become new tenants in common with the surviving owners. (None of the tenants in common automatically receive, by default, the share of the decedent.)
-  Community Property – In the nine states that recognize community property, including California, any property you acquire while married is considered community property, and is equally owned between you and your spouse. This becomes especially relevant in the event of divorce.

-  Community Property with Right of Survivorship - this (more recent) method is very often used nowadays around here in California, as it combines some of the advantages of owning from both Joint Tenancy and Community Property.
-  and there are many other ways of holding title, among others in an LLC, or an LLP, or also, very common around our areas where properties are so high in value, in a Trust.

This is why it you are not certain how you want to hold title to your real estate asset, it is best to inquire ahead of time, ideally with a licensed California real estate attorney. 

I have found that even people who've owned a property for a long time should revisit this important matter, as needs and life situations change over time.
Contact me if you need some resources, and do not just base your decision on the information above ;-)

As always, thank you for reading!

Francis

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Local Market Update - Silicon Valley Real Estate

Market Watch

Low Inventory Still Impacting Northern California

September 11, 2017

Sparse housing inventory continues to affect the Northern California market. The California Association of Realtors’ latest report indicates that the San Francisco Bay Area endured a large drop in pending sales due to the lack of available housing. In fact, it dipped 11.5 percent since last July. The report also indicates that San Francisco and San Mateo counties were both down double-digits, 11.0 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively. For homeowners on the fence about selling, the lack of inventory makes it a great time to list because many patient home buyers are prepared to come in with solid offers. Read more about what’s happening, coming directly from our Northern California Coldwell Banker offices:

From the trenches...:

SF Peninsula – Half Moon Bay’s market remained competitive. The luxury market continued with strong demand. Average days on the market was just 17, with a median sales price of $2 million.
Menlo Park experienced a fast-paced market with no slowing. Sellers were encouraged to list their homes instead of trying to time the market or wait for a more optimal time.
Redwood City had a lack of inventory. Homes priced under $1 million brought in multiple offers. In the $1 million-plus market, homes sat on the market longer before closing.

Santa Cruz County- Offices in Santa Cruz saw a strong month. Average sales prices have been increasing steadily for the last five years by $30,000 to $90,000. This year is no different, with the average sales price of $950,000 and an average list price of $1,050,000. Buyers have been more aggressive in their offers. The luxury market in Santa Cruz peaked in comparison to the last few months with an average of just 50 days on the market (instead of 54 days), and experienced significantly more sales above the $1 million mark over past months.

Silicon Valley – Cupertino continues to experience a lack of inventory. However, the luxury market is still active up to $4 million. Low inventory was also a key factor in Los Gatos’ market, creating a similar dynamic as in Cupertino.
Gilroy and Morgan Hill also endured a lack of inventory causing multiple offers and high closing prices. Even in those markets favoring the supply-side, sellers should be prepared to choose quickly when presented with multiple offers. To submit a winning offer, buyers must put their highest offers first and make the transaction easier for the sellers.
San Jose remained active even with declining inventory. Because of the decreased supply, prices have slightly increased. Sellers can take advantage of the high demand. Buyers should think long term and be prepared to make a strong offer. Factors such as multiple offers or slightly higher asking prices should not deter them from putting in offers.
Saratoga’s market saw an increase of 21 percent in the average sales price year-over-year. The luxury market remained active with five listings and four sales.

My personal current market report allows you to check in for your own City, and area within your City.

Thank you for reading,
Francis

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Home purchases by foreigners in the US

What is the profile of the international home purchase activity in the US?

About a year ago I mentioned some of the characteristics of the types of properties foreign buyers were buying, depending on where they are from.  This blog here is more general in nature and shows how much, globally, each country participated in the buying binge in the US.

An image is worth 1000 words...  the National Association of Realtors put out a study and infographic that says it all, entitled:  Where are most international buyers from?
Please check out the NAR's  2016 International Profile.

.. which translates in the following figures:

Thank you for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
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Seasonality of real estate sales prices - Silicon Valley

To piggy-back on one of my earlier blogs on the evolution of prices in the Silicon Valley, here is an updated graph showing the median price of a residential piece of property in the County of Santa Clara, between a bit before Jan 1, 2015, and right now: July of 2017.





















Click on the graph to see it larger.

The green arrows point to a seasonal low in Aug./ September (corresponding to August sales) and a movement downwards in january, which corresponds to sales in November and December.
As mentioned in my previous blog, it does not mean necessarily that the same property will sell for less in December than in January, but it does mean that more properties of a lower value sold in November / December than in January.  One can see that in February the median price starts going higher (these are the January sales).

Will the same property sell for less during those times?  It is open to question, but my experience is that a prime piece of real estate, with good location, very good condition etc... will sell for about the same price.  By experience, if a property is not top notch, it may suffer somewhat from the timing.   Otherwise, these ups and downs relate to the fact that:
- many people are away during the months of July and August,
- many people wait for right after Labor Day to put a property on the market (feeling that fewer people will be in the market to buy a home, because away on vacation),
- fewer people are looking to buy in November and December because of the holidays and the weather.
- statistically, more homes go on the market during those slower times because they have to.  This can  also explain why the sales price is lower.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

Perspective on the Real Estate Market - Silicon Valley - USA

A perspective on the real estate market in the US, and in the Silicon Valley - the Bay Area of San Francisco.

As I update this amazing graph every year around the month of April - May, I cannot stop being amazed at the evolution of prices in our corner of the world.
This graph makes me think somewhat about the technical progress of the past 3 decades  - also unique to our generation.  Although obviously it is not in direct correlation to scientific discoveries, since it is a reflection of other factors like supply and demand, economic upticks and downturns and geographic particularities, the graph is as extreme in its own way, and covers a time frame that is the same.

Click to see a larger graph.

What happens after the end of 2016?  For now the market is still a strong sellers' market in most of the US regions. 
Nationwide the median home value is now higher than right before the "Big Crisis", at $198,000, according to the April Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports (Svenja Gudell article).
However, let's not forget that this is not true of all of the US: in 17 of the 32 largest metropolitan housing markets prices are still below-peak (like in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami).

Here in the Silicon Valley the market remains very much a seller's market. At this point, I believe the annual appreciation will be easily around 6-8%.  The areas with the lowest average prices may even show a higher rate of appreciation.  Multiple offers are the norm, and cash is king...

Thank you for reading,
Francis

Trends: Local prices and graphs.
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A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

8 facts about Mountain View, Google's hometown

Mountain View is the hometown of Google.  Have you ever been curious about the town that hosts Google?

Here are 8 facts about Mountain View that you've always been curious about, but never asked - ok, may be you checked before... ;-)

 In 2016:

• 573 homes sold - houses, townhouses and condominiums,
• Mountain View’s average home sales price is:  $ 1.384 million, roughly 6% over the asking price, and 4.3% over the average sales price of 2015,
• The average time for properties to sell was: 19 days
• Out of those 573 homes, 42% were single family residences.  The others were condominiums or townhouses,
• Overwhelmingly, properties sold in Mountain View were 3 bedroom homes (41%).  Then in order came the 2 bedrooms (29%) and the 4 bedrooms (18%).
• Nearly half of the homes were between 40 and 70 years old (45%).   (13 were over 80 years old, 37 were new or 1 yr old),
• The average size of all these sold Mountain View homes is 1493 sq.ft.
• Half of all the households of Mountain View made over $103k/year and half made under that.

Curious about more info on Google's town?  Check out my full neighborhood report.

Curious about your town, in the Silicon Valley? curious about the value of your home?  Let me know, I'll do the study.

Thanks for reading!

Francis

Your Mountain View Home Value

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Card Drawing by Francis

Silicon Valley market update - California/US Update

Here are some news from the trenches...  concrete information about what is happening in our local area of the Silicon Valley - Plus, for some perspective, some information about the hottest markets in the US. (which include San Francisco and San Jose in the first two...).

Silicon Valley – More listings are emerging in the region, but Santa Clara County is still facing a shortage of available homes and strong buyer demand, which in some cases is leading to bidding wars. Open houses drew “hundreds of visitors” in the last two weeks, reports the Cupertino office manager. All offers ratified over the past two weeks have been multiple offers and all deals have contingencies in place, according to the San Jose Almaden office manager. Prices were up in several communities in January compared to the same month in 2016, he noted. Almaden’s average sales price was $1,329,000 in January, which was up 12 percent from January 2016 and down 3 percent from December.  Blossom Valley’s average sales price followed a similar trend. The average sales price in that community was $708,000 in January, which is up 10.5 percent from January 2016 and down 9 percent from the prior month.  In contrast, Cambrian’s average sales price declined 10.5 percent from a year ago to $916,000 and was down 6 percent from December.  Santa Teresa’s average sales price rose 11 percent year-over-year to $759,000 in January and was also 2 percent higher than the average sales price recorded in December. Most homes are going into contract after just one weekend on the market and in some areas homes are selling well over 10 percent of asking list price, says the San Jose Willow Glen office manager. Despite the strong demand and brisk activity, “Sellers still need to be careful not to overprice as we see homes that are priced above market sit idle as more competitively priced homes are seeing all the action,” explained the San Jose Main office manager.


For the hottest real estate markets in the US (many of them in California), please follow this Coldwell Banker article.

Thank you for reading!
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A place worth noting: Our Brother's Home in MountainView

Where can you find that home style?

Where can you find that style?

Great article I found recently about the various building styles in the US, and in which area/state you are more likely to find them. 

The following map speaks quite well about the locations and the styles, but I find the article itself most interesting to read as it goes into the reasons why a style is more prevalent in a given state, and the usual value of the houses.

It comes to no surprise that the Mediterranean style is the most expensive, - it is often the case here too in the Silicon Valley, although I would add to this article that the “contemporary” home and the “modern” home are likely to be the most expensive where we are, as they are often associated with “new”, "recently build" and “high tech” or “smart home”.  This includes energy efficient.  Only the Eichlers might fit in that category of “contemporary” while not being necessarily new.

From an article in Realtor.com author by YuqingPan.

Thank you, as always, for reading, and let me know if you are thinking of buying or selling in 2017! ;-)

Francis

Buying or selling?

Silicon Valley real estate

Worthwhile non-profit Agency:  CSA in Mountain View

Santa Clara County: Price evolution.

'tis the time of year: how did sales prices fare in the County of Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) for the past 2 years?  This blog looks at the price of houses only: Single Family Residences.

Looking at the graph below, one can see the curves of median prices and average prices, month by month.  They are similar, but not equal though:
- over the period of the last two years, the median price went up 18%, from a median of $813k in Jan. 2015 to a median of $963k in Dec. of 2016.
- this is a much higher appreciation than the average price, which went up only 6% from $1.13 million in Jan. 2015 to $1.2 million the month of Dec. 2016.

As a reminder, this median price means that half of all buyers bought a house over $963k, and half bought a house under that price.

Something apparent in this kind of graph (which I publish regularly over the years) is the evolution over the course of the year: prices go up as a whole in general during the first 6 months of the year, and have a tendency to go down from there until the end of the year - with the exception of Sept. and October, when there is a regain in activity.

This is difficult to interpret completely: it does not mean necessarily that the value of a specific house will go down at that time, nor that it is not a good time to sell in November or December.  What it does mean instead is that statistically, more houses of a lower value sell during those periods, and this could be because of many reasons.
One of them, for instance, could be that people in a higher price range can wait for a "better" time to sell: the traditionally "active" real estate season of January to June.  It could be that more people "have" to sell at the end of the year;  more pressure means less room for negotiation.
What is also true though is that a beautiful remodeled home in a desirable neighborhood will probably not loose any value even at the end of the year, at least in our area of the US.

Finally, as a reminder that we always have to take graphs and statistics with a grain of salt, the same figures translate into the following:

Average prices for 2015:  $1.246 million
                         for 2016:  $1.292 million.  This is an increase of 3.7%

Median price for 2015:  $950k
                      for 2016: $1.02 million.  This is an increase of 7.4%

This is a better representation of the market as we follow the market over the years:  from year to year, instead of from a given month to another given month.

To make sense of the evolution of prices in your own local area, or to price your home, do contact me.
Thank you for reading,
Francis


PS: Detailed info per County always available on my web site at:  www.frolland.com under the tab: "Local Info and Stats".

Santa Clara County 2016 yearly report.
San Mateo County 2016 yearly report.

Effect of current tax structure on local Bay Area real estate market.

' just read a really good article in the Chronicle about how the current tax structure is hindering home sales in the Bay Area (San Francisco), and bringing prices up.

When you sell a property that has been a principal residence for many years, you usually have a large capital gain, and the tax that comes with it. In a very common scenario, there is a capital gains tax exemption of $500k if you are a married couple, or $250k if you are single.  The problem arises when you have bought your home a very, very long time ago: the purchase price is so low that when compared to the sales price today, and after factoring in the costs and capital improvements ( - thanks to CPA's for helping with all these calculations 😊  ), the capital gain is so high that the tax due on it is a big deal.

Some would say that this is a good problem to have.  But in fact, many people do not want to have such a tax hit, or some people just cannot pay the tax (i.e. if you have borrowed a lot on your equity, you don't have much left when you sell).

This situation is so acute in the Bay Area (think: large appreciation) that it has contributed to the lack of inventory we've seen in the past few years, and this in turn is pushing prices up.

While there are several options to try to deal with the problem, none of them is so easy or straightforward - except for dying, which I will pass on - no pun intended...  So homeowners who find themselves in that situation often just delay the sale until later, and later... and there are fewer homes on the market.

The article was written by Kathleen Pender, Business Columnist at the SF Chronicle.
Check here to see the article and the interactive map showing where the capital gains are most prevalent, in the 9 Counties that make our "Bay Area".

Thank you for reading,
Francis

Silicon Valley Real Estate
Smart local Stats and Graphs 
non-profit organization worth noting: Partners for New Generations.

Bay Area rents are coming down a bit...

In the process of helping clients to rent their income property, I had noticed since last March/April that prices were not as strong a before, and recently had even been going down a bit.  But this is difficult to verify, since there are so few rentals locally in a given month.

I am glad to see some confirmation of that in this article from the Mercury News that I just read last Tuesday (10/25/16), in which Richard Scheinin pools several sources showing that rents have stopped going up in several cities around the Bay, and even come down a bit since last year.

It is interesting to note the Axiometrics study which found that rents in San Jose fell 3.4% since last year, San Francisco rents fell about 3.3% too, while nationwide rents overall continued a slight up curve.
Thank you for reading! - and if you like my blog, share it ;-)
Francis

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates
A worthy local non-profit to remember: Community Services Agency in Mountain View

From the trenches: real estate in the Silicon Valley - 2nd week of October 2016

Market Watch - Coldwell Banker.

...Silicon Valley 

– It has been a relatively quiet two weeks, according to our Cupertino manager. Open house traffic is steady.

Our Los Altos manager sees continued signs of seasonal adjustments although inventory is low as summer comes to a close and we move into fall.  New inventory has slowed of late.  This lack of inventory has had a direct impact on those homes which had been "lingering" on the market and agents have seen additional price reductions on homes with higher than average DOMs (days on market).  Sellers are still wishing to “test the market” by bringing their homes on at higher prices than previous sales and pendings.  However, this pricing strategy has proved to be risky, given that many buyers' expectations are that they will still need to offer over the asking.  As a result of this type of pricing strategy agents are seeing a “self-fulfilling prophecy” with these homes having little to no activity. These homes end up stagnant and linger on the market, eventually having to lower their price to generate activity. To the contrary, there has been strong activity with properties in move in condition and priced to sell.  These homes are still receiving multiple offers that typically achieve a sales price that is over asking.  This was the case with one of our recent listings, which had 24 offers.  In short, we have experienced a slowdown of homes coming on the market over the recent weeks.  And those that are coming on, when priced to induce offers, are being absorbed quickly.

The Los Gatos market under $2.5 million continues to be extremely competitive.  The market over $2.5 million is a tad slower but great properties over $2.5 continue to sell. 

The San Jose Almaden market had an average number of sales for the month with 40, which is down from 44 in August and flat with the 39 sold in 2015.  Prices were up with the median sales price at $1,320,000 for the month, up 7.8% from the previous month and 3.5% higher than the previous year.  Blossom Valley had a strong month in units sold with 94 closings, up from 88 last month and 86 last year.  The median home price of $751,250, up 4% from last month and last year at this time.  

Cambrian had a big jump from last month with 86 closings, 20 more than August and 4 more than 2015.  The median sales price was $937,500, up 3.9% from last month but down 1% from September of 2015.  

Santa Teresa had a lower number of units sold at 27, down 6 from last month and down 13 units from September of 2015.  The median sales price of $750,000, down 4.5% from last month but up a whopping 11% from September of last year. 

Willow Glen got a surge of new listing inventory this past week, going from the low 60’s count to 83 active listings. Agents are reporting slower traffic at open houses, particularly if the property has been on the market more than 2 weeks. However, some properties are still selling quickly with multiple offers, but typically the offers are at or just slightly above the list price.

Thanks for reading! 
Francis


Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Coming soon: Shredding and E-waste day, organized by
Coldwell Banker in Los Altos Oct.29, 2016
Please contact me for more details.              

Housing Differences and the Election - Red States vs Blue States.

Red States vs Blue States: Housing Differences and the Election.

It seems apropos in this pre-election period to look at some of the differences between blue and red states, with regards to housing.  Here we go:

The median household income in blue states is $62,564, about 23% higher than in red states, where it is $50,820.  In those blue states, 1.4% of households bring home $500k or more (think: tech

fortunes in California’s Silicon Valley, and seven-figure bonuses on New york’s Wall street).  These 1.4% seem small, but it is 133% more than the percentage of households that bring in $500k or more in right-leaning states.

The median price of homes is $301k in blue states, which is 91% more than in red states.

Ohio has the least expensive homes (although it is a swing state).

Homeownership is highest in red states, where it costs less to have a home.  However, (- exception), the city with the highest homeownership rate is San Jose (CA) even though the median list price of homes is $767k, according to Realtor.com.  Washington DC has the lowest homeownership rate.  In red states, people spend 26% of their median household income to buy a place, while it takes 32% of a household’s income to buy a place in a blue state.

Renting takes an average of $1,381 a month in blue states.  This is  52% more than in red states where it costs an average of $904 per month.  “The cost of housing is directly tied to how much land is available”, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke says.  “The parts of the country that have an abundance of land have the lowest housing costs”.

Click on Pix to see larger

The median size of houses in red states is about 2,000 sq.ft.  – about 210 square feet larger than in blue states. 

Oldest houses: in blue states. Many of the blue state cities are older than their red counterparts.

Mobile homes: the highest concentration of mobile and manufactured homes are based in the red state of Mississippi.  The city with the lowest percentage of these homes is San Francisco.

Solar panels:  liberal states tend to have more eco-friendly residents, who are 12% more likely to

have solar panels installed on the roof of their homes.  The most panels (in number) were installed in California, while Hawaii has the highest percentage of residences with the solar power source.  San Jose (CA) is the city with the highest percentage of homes with solar panels.  The fewest panels are in the (red) state of Wyoming. Memphis, Tennessee, was the city with the smallest percentage of residents invested in them.
Thank you for reading!

Francis

Originally posted on Realtor.com, by Clare Trapasso.

Silicon Valley real estate specialist
Detailed, local trends etc...
Current mortgage rates

Coming soon: Shredding and E-waste day, organized by
Coldwell Banker in Los Altos Oct.29, 2016  
Please contact me for more details.